Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F0 0xf0f7…eac7 crypto 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$546 (-12%) realized −$828 · open +$282
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%73W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$257
7 days+$257
14 days+$257
30 days+$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% +$596
crypto 27% −$463
world 18% −$159
politics 13% +$32
other 5% −$94
weather 3% −$59
economics 3% −$100
finance 1% +$7
tech 1% −$29
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 50% +32.7%
≤30d 6 +19.4% +8.1% 50% 50% +21.4%
≤90d 6 +19.4% +8.1% 50% 50% +21.4%
all 198 -13.8% -22.0% 37% 33% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 33% -22.0%
10% -29.5% 29% -29.5%
15% -36.3% 26% -36.3%
20% -42.5% 23% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$16 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$682
Realized−$828
Unrealized+$282
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses73 / 125
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)198 / 200
History coverage289d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 88¢ $300 $474 +$174 (+58%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 100¢ $100 $208 +$108 (+108%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $406 +$352 +87%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $22 +$28 +124%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $33 −$33 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $92 −$90 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $91 −$90 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $30 +$63 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 25 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 15? Feb 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 15? Feb 15 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 15 $160 +$16 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 15? Feb 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Feb 15 $67 +$69 +104%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026? Feb 14 $96 −$96 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Janua Feb 14 $26 +$37 +146%
Will Amazon reach $248 in February? Feb 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Feb 11 $7 +$3 +47%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 11 $8 +$2 +28%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026? Feb 11 $4 +$6 +138%
Cavaliers vs. Kings Feb 11 $11 +$29 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Feb 07 $20 +$20 +98%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $100 on the final trading day of January Jan 31 $10 +$15 +147%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026? Jan 31 $4 +$6 +178%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of January? Jan 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026? Jan 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,850-$4,975 in January? Jan 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January? Jan 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jan 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026? Jan 26 $62 +$38 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 24? Jan 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026? Jan 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Jan 23 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 6AM ET Jan 23 $8 +$2 +33%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026? Jan 22 $106 +$33 +31%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026? Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026? Jan 22 $92 +$65 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 4AM ET Jan 22 $44 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8AM ET Jan 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 7AM ET Jan 21 $42 +$8 +20%
Will "Epstein" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Exper Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above $110K on September 10? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "God" 10+ times during Museum of the Bible speech on Se Jan 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" during Museum of the Bible speech on September 8 Jan 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025? Jan 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Syria / Syrian" 10+ times during Syria Presiden Jan 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Jan 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on December 2? Jan 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will anyone say or "Artificial Intelligence" during Apple launch event Jan 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $304 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $406 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $22 40h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $33 40h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $92 40h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $91 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 32¢ $30 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $19 111d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $66 121d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 15? BUY Up 35¢ $21 122d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 15? BUY Up 35¢ $35 122d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 15? BUY Up 33¢ $23 122d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 15? BUY Up 33¢ $10 122d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $176 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 15? BUY Up 50¢ $5 122d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 15? BUY Up 50¢ $100 122d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 15? BUY Up 50¢ $5 122d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 15? BUY Up 49¢ $10 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 15? BUY Up 48¢ $5 122d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 15? BUY Up 45¢ $4 122d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $49 122d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $67 122d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $47 122d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $0 123d
Will Amazon reach $248 in February? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 124d
Will Amazon reach $248 in February? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 125d
Will Amazon reach $248 in February? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 125d
Will Amazon reach $248 in February? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $682.34 · official $510.91 · 523 history records