Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0f7…5dfd politics 40 markets active 2d ago coverage 293d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% +$1
world 28% −$2
other 25% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.7% -11.1% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 9 -5.0% -14.1% 22% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 9 -5.0% -14.1% 22% 0% -10.3%
all 40 -1.7% -11.1% 32% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

293d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage293d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $39 +$1 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $4 −$1 -36%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $56 $0 -1%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Dec 26 $16 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 19 $1 $0 -29%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 18 $2 $0 -6%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Oct 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $36 +$1 +4%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Sep 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 16 $4 $0 +2%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 12 $5 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 11 $4 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi Sep 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 02 $35 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Sep 02 $37 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 28 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 28 $37 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $24 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $39 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 20¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 20¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $8 5d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $1 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $45 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $45 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $27 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $11 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $19 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $29 12d
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? SELL No 99¢ $16 173d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 210d
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 95¢ $20 242d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records