Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:28:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F0 0xf0f7…2bfa sports 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,993 (+11%) realized +$2,029 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%106W / 133L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$192est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$390
7 days+$516
14 days+$459
30 days+$584
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$1,872
other 11% +$418
world 1% −$42
crypto 0% −$21
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +14.4% +3.5% 45% 45% +10.1%
≤30d 61 -11.3% -19.7% 31% 31% +4.7%
≤90d 216 -8.4% -17.1% 39% 38% -0.3%
all 239 +2.5% -7.2% 44% 42% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 42% +1.6%
10% -16.1% 40% -8.1%
15% -24.2% 35% -17.0%
20% -31.6% 27% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$35 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$2,029
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses106 / 133
Est. fees paid−$192
Open positions5
Markets (closed)239 / 244
History coverage159d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $38 $31 −$6 (-17%)
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 52¢ 28¢ $52 $28 −$24 (-46%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $25 $22 −$4 (-14%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-2%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,219 +$368 +30%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero (BO5) - BetBoom Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $63 +$42 +67%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Virtus.pro vs Team Yandex (BO5) - BetBoom Ri Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $188 +$55 +30%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero (BO3) - BetBoom Jun 17 $14 +$42 +294%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aura Farmers vs Aterion Esports (BO3) - BetB Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Cyber Hero vs HARD GRIND (BO3) - BetBoom Ris Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Magic vs Omnix (BO3) - BetBoom Rise of Legen Jun 16 $23 +$46 +197%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit Academy White vs Omnix (BO3) - B Jun 16 $115 −$115 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $196 +$90 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $139 −$17 -12%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $146 +$57 +39%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$8 -61%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: HARD GRIND vs Dark Phoenix (BO3) - BetBoom R Jun 15 $35 +$66 +185%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $23 +$78 +335%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC (BO5) - MPL Indonesia Pl Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$19 -62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$3 -13%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 12 $31 +$22 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$32 +165%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $32 −$13 -42%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 10 $42 −$28 -66%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M Jun 10 $60 +$106 +177%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Yandex vs Verso Time (BO5) - MLBB Conti Jun 09 $107 −$19 -18%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Virtus.pro vs Verso Time (BO5) - MLBB Contin Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Team Vamos (BO7) - MP Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? Jun 09 $34 −$1 -2%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Bigetron MY by VIT (B Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Invictus Gaming vs Selangor Red Giants (BO5) Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Vamos vs Bigetron MY by VIT (BO5) - MPL Jun 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aterion Esports vs HARD GRIND (BO3) - BetBoo Jun 06 $73 −$73 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Vamos vs RRQ Tora (BO5) - MPL Malaysia Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - MLBB Cont Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dark Phoenix vs Team Spirit Academy White (B Jun 02 $28 +$22 +82%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Suplex Team vs HARD GRIND (BO3) - BetBoom Ri Jun 01 $126 +$106 +84%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid PH vs Team Falcons PH (BO7) - MP May 31 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC PH vs Team Liquid PH (BO5) - MPL Philip May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Falcons PH vs Omega Esports (BO5) - MPL May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC PH vs Team Falcons PH (BO7) - MPL Phili May 30 $13 +$32 +257%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid PH vs Omega Esports (BO5) - MPL May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC PH vs Aurora Gaming PH (BO5) - MPL Phil May 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Omega Esports vs Twisted Minds PH (BO5) - MP May 27 $55 +$45 +82%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: RRQ Hoshi vs Dewa United Esports (BO3) - MPL May 25 $28 −$8 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,587 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,002 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 54¢ $159 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $55 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $63 13h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero (BO5) - BetBoom BUY Cyber Hero 45¢ $2 25h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero (BO5) - BetBoom BUY Cyber Hero 45¢ $45 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $243 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 86¢ $162 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $26 36h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Virtus.pro vs Team Yandex (BO5) - BetBoom Ri BUY Team Yandex 55¢ $29 41h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero (BO3) - BetBoom SELL Cyber Hero 100¢ $56 2d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero (BO3) - BetBoom BUY Cyber Hero 25¢ $14 2d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero (BO3) - BetBoom BUY Cyber Hero 17¢ $0 2d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Magic vs Omnix (BO3) - BetBoom Rise of Legen SELL Omnix 100¢ $69 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 3d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Magic vs Omnix (BO3) - BetBoom Rise of Legen BUY Omnix 30¢ $6 3d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aura Farmers vs Aterion Esports (BO3) - BetB BUY Aterion Esports 25¢ $1 3d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Cyber Hero vs HARD GRIND (BO3) - BetBoom Ris BUY HARD GRIND 30¢ $3 3d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Magic vs Omnix (BO3) - BetBoom Rise of Legen BUY Omnix 35¢ $18 3d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Cyber Hero vs HARD GRIND (BO3) - BetBoom Ris BUY HARD GRIND 35¢ $18 3d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Cyber Hero vs HARD GRIND (BO3) - BetBoom Ris BUY HARD GRIND 40¢ $21 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $286 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $146 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.39 · official $106.39 (match) · 1457 history records