Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:49:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0f6…f699 other 279 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$111,150 (+11%) realized +$21,393 · open +$475
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate86%209W / 33L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$3,594per market
Trades / day86.4pace
Fees−$200est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$19,274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,983
7 days+$10,549
14 days+$12,767
30 days+$15,272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$3,306
other 30% +$12,334
politics 17% +$4,994
world 6% +$296
crypto 2% +$820
tech 0% +$119
weather 0% −$2
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +4.6% -5.4% 87% 10% -8.0%
≤30d 217 +11.0% +0.5% 86% 15% -8.0%
≤90d 242 +13.0% +2.2% 86% 15% -7.5%
all 242 +13.0% +2.2% 86% 15% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.2% 15% -7.5%
10% -7.6% 11% -16.4%
15% ← realistic here -16.5% 7% -24.5%
20% -24.7% 6% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$3,333) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$81 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×10.39 per $1 lost it wins $10.39
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$19,274
Realized+$21,393
Unrealized+$475
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses209 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$200
Open positions45
Markets (closed)242 / 279
History coverage36d
Avg bet$3,594
Trades / day86.4
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 99¢ 100¢ $14,850 $14,992 +$142 (+1%)
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 36¢ 42¢ $920 $1,072 +$152 (+17%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 84¢ 93¢ $452 $501 +$50 (+11%)
Another crypto hack over $100m by June 30? No 70¢ 78¢ $294 $324 +$30 (+10%)
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 59¢ 66¢ $290 $322 +$32 (+11%)
Over $1.5B crypto hack value in 2026? No 37¢ 28¢ $401 $303 −$98 (-24%)
Tuyo FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No 91¢ 92¢ $224 $226 +$2 (+1%)
Will Neutrl launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 61¢ 80¢ $127 $167 +$40 (+32%)
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 44¢ 44¢ $162 $162 −$1 (-0%)
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 28¢ 34¢ $98 $116 +$18 (+19%)
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 17¢ 28¢ $67 $114 +$47 (+70%)
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 17¢ 34¢ $54 $111 +$57 (+105%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 40¢ 30¢ $148 $111 −$37 (-25%)
Will Yeet launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 21¢ 38¢ $63 $110 +$48 (+76%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 49¢ 48¢ $98 $95 −$3 (-3%)
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 48¢ $44 $59 +$15 (+34%)
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $7B in 2026? No 59¢ 70¢ $47 $57 +$9 (+20%)
Another crypto hack over $100m by September 30? No 24¢ 40¢ $34 $56 +$23 (+67%)
Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 39¢ 46¢ $46 $53 +$8 (+17%)
Tuyo FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 85¢ 88¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+4%)
Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $42 $32 −$10 (-23%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $73 $28 −$45 (-61%)
Tuyo FDV above $700M one day after launch? No 83¢ 86¢ $24 $24 +$1 (+4%)
Will Marco Rubio be TIME Person of the Year 2026? No 85¢ 66¢ $28 $22 −$7 (-23%)
Will John Malkovich be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 48¢ 70¢ $14 $21 +$7 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $13,861 +$140 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $177 +$222 +125%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $9,900 +$90 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15,400 +$139 +1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1,017 +$9 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $407 +$4 +1%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $9,903 +$97 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $89 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $14,297 +$132 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $15,503 +$46 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $11,000 +$100 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $11,214 +$102 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2,178 +$42 +2%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,016 +$229 +23%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11,000 +$100 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4,183 +$38 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1,494 +$14 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $51,000 $0 +0%
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $313 −$13 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,656 +$108 +1%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1,201 +$13 +1%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $609 +$8 +1%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $355 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $22,003 +$199 +1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $407 +$6 +2%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1,211 +$11 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,445 +$13 +1%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $11,000 +$101 +1%
Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 14 $365 +$52 +14%
Will 3jane launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $294 +$120 +41%
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 13 $214 −$14 -6%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40,021 +$425 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $14,300 +$129 +1%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 13 $2,539 +$23 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $3,333 +$30 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $3,218 +$29 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $6,278 +$63 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $14,199 +$293 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $748 +$8 +1%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $2,243 +$20 +1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $82,000 +$5,000 +6%
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $489 +$16 +3%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $365 +$122 +33%
Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Paraguay: O/ Jun 13 $5 +$10 +196%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $6,185 +$57 +1%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $19,800 +$200 +1%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $2,515 +$50 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $149 45m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $2,230 47m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $27 47m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $1,402 47m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $594 48m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $9 48m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $424 48m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $45 48m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $19 49m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $22 49m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $18 49m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $1,014 49m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $495 49m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $18 49m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $37 49m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $56 49m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $95 49m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $7 49m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $495 49m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $7 50m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $183 50m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $2 50m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $35 50m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $71 50m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $4 50m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $33 50m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $41 50m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $99 50m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $37 51m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $11 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,274.06 · official $19,286.27 (match) · 3500 history records