Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0f6…131b world 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate42%21W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$4
other 32% −$12
sports 20% −$1
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 56% 22% -9.7%
≤30d 23 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 13% -9.4%
≤90d 41 -0.6% -10.1% 34% 7% -9.9%
all 50 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 12% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 12% -10.1%
10% -17.6% 6% -18.7%
15% -25.5% 4% -26.6%
20% -32.8% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses21 / 29
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage533d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $73 −$1 -2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $6 +$1 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $2 $0 +3%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $27 +$5 +17%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $15 −$4 -27%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $32 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $48 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $53 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $92 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $2 $0 +17%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $1 $0 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $30 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $30 −$8 -27%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $38 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 22 $32 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $38 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $39 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $30 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $43 −$1 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $280 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $102 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $105 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $253 +$2 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $5 $0 -8%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $1 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $1 $0 +24%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Mar 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be 49% or more on February 14? Mar 04 $3 +$2 +82%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 22 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the Bills beat the Broncos by 9 or more points? Jan 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 65¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 66¢ $36 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $32 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $32 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $35 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $35 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 37h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes $4 39h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes $1 39h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes $1 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $3 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $29 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $27 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $31 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records