Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0f5…72bc other 214 markets active 19h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (329 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$302 (-6%) realized −$299 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate26%52W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day329.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$171
other 18% −$25
weather 12% −$65
tech 5% −$9
politics 3% −$10
finance 2% −$9
culture 1% −$4
crypto 1% −$6
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (329 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 200 +1.9% -7.8% 26% 8% -15.0%
≤30d 200 +1.9% -7.8% 26% 8% -15.0%
≤90d 200 +1.9% -7.8% 26% 8% -15.0%
all 200 +1.9% -7.8% 26% 8% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover329.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 8% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 6% -23.1%
15% -24.7% 5% -30.5%
20% -32.1% 4% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$299
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses52 / 148
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)200 / 214
History coverage6d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day329.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 40¢ 36¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-9%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 81¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 79¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+11%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No 39¢ 41¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? No 48¢ 64¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+32%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 63¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? No 47¢ 46¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 74¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 33¢ 20¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 43¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+131%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 41¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Jun 16 $53 −$11 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $34 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 16 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 16 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $36 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $35 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $22 −$5 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $18 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$6 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $20 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$2 -29%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $84 −$9 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$6 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 −$5 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $48 +$4 +8%
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Jun 15 $1 $0 -14%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 15 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in June 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Will Trump say "Sacrifice" this week? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $104 −$1 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 15 $30 −$1 -3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $112 −$3 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $404 −$39 -10%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 15 $19 −$1 -5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $52 −$2 -4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $69 +$3 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $28 −$5 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $5 18h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? BUY No 39¢ $7 18h
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $6 18h
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 BUY Yes 67¢ $5 18h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY No 74¢ $5 19h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E BUY No 81¢ $10 19h
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? BUY No 79¢ $8 22h
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $12 22h
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $11 40h
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $0 40h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $4 40h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 33¢ $5 40h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $7 40h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 40¢ $12 40h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 44h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 44h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 84¢ $33 44h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 44h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 44h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $18 44h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $18 44h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 94¢ $9 44h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $9 44h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 10¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.17 · official $70.67 · 2059 history records