Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:21:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F0 0xf0f2…8dae other 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$233 (+2%) realized +$233 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%89W / 1L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$57
14 days+$60
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$134
tech 29% +$34
finance 10% +$25
sports 10% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +2.2% -7.6% 100% 4% -7.0%
≤30d 53 +1.5% -8.2% 98% 2% -7.3%
≤90d 89 +1.7% -8.0% 99% 2% -7.5%
all 90 +1.7% -8.0% 99% 2% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 2% -7.5%
10% -16.8% 0% -16.4%
15% -24.8% 0% -24.5%
20% -32.2% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$36 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.77 per $1 lost it wins $7.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$233
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses89 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage113d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $144 in June? Jun 24 $49 +$2 +4%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $155 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 24 $131 +$19 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 24 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 24 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of June 22 20 Jun 22 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $350 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $178 +$2 +1%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $98 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $114 +$1 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $412.50 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $172.50 Week of June 22 2 Jun 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $102 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $170 Week of June 22 2026 Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 22 20 Jun 22 $178 +$2 +1%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,200 Week of June 22 20 Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $212 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $172 +$8 +5%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $240 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $14 $0 +1%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $104 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $177 +$3 +2%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $300 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $62 +$4 +6%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $167.50 Week of June 22 2 Jun 22 $174 +$6 +3%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $165 Week of June 22 2026 Jun 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $405 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $178 +$2 +1%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $248 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $178 +$2 +1%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 29 $104 −$36 -34%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $156 in May? May 29 $19 $0 +1%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $153 Week of May 25 May 29 $346 +$3 +1%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May? May 29 $473 +$35 +7%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of May 25 2026? May 28 $195 +$2 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? May 28 $283 +$26 +9%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of May 25 2026? May 28 $294 +$16 +6%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $170 in May? May 28 $279 +$21 +8%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $130 Week of May 25 2026? May 28 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $272 Week of May 25 2026? May 27 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.00 Week of May 25 May 27 $190 +$2 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.00 in May? May 27 $189 +$3 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May? May 27 $190 +$2 +1%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of May 25 2026? May 27 $185 +$7 +4%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $132 Week of May 25 2 May 27 $151 +$4 +3%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $442.50 Week of May 25 2026? May 27 $190 +$2 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $308 Week of May 25 2026? May 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 Week of May 25 2026? May 26 $149 +$1 +1%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $187.50 Week of May 25 20 May 26 $27 $0 +1%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $185 Week of May 25 2026? May 26 $19 $0 +1%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $75 Week of May 25 2026 May 26 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $144 in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 22m
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $144 in June? BUY Yes 96¢ $49 25m
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $155 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 37m
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $155 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $131 39m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 49m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 50m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 97¢ $194 1h
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of June 22 20 SELL Yes 100¢ $110 42h
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of June 22 20 BUY Yes 99¢ $109 42h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 47h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 47h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 47h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $59 47h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 47h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 47h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $350 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $180 47h
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $98 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 47h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $350 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $168 2d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $350 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $98 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $114 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $59 2d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $412.50 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $412.50 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $172.50 Week of June 22 2 SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2d
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $172.50 Week of June 22 2 BUY Yes 99¢ $15 2d
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $102 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $170 Week of June 22 2026 SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 199 history records