Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:23:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F0 0xf0f0…197f sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$113 (+77%) realized +$98 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +91% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +66% what you keep after slip
Net edge+66%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$128
other 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+73.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +91.2% +73.0% 60% 60% +64.5%
≤30d 10 +91.2% +73.0% 60% 60% +64.5%
≤90d 10 +91.2% +73.0% 60% 60% +64.5%
all 10 +91.2% +73.0% 60% 60% +64.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +73.0% 60% +64.5%
10% +56.5% 60% +48.8%
15% +41.3% 60% +34.4%
20% +27.5% 60% +21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +82% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +91% · $-wt +82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$11 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.4 per $1 lost it wins $3.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$98
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 76¢ $15 $30 +$15 (+101%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $12 +$35 +304%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $16 +$52 +332%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +228%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $21 +$24 +112%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$20 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $16 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 7¢ $1 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $11 4h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $8 26h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $21 32h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $21 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.20 · official $30.20 (match) · 24 history records