Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F0 0xf0ee…7d14 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$2,064 (+10%) realized +$2,894 · open −$830
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip
Net edge+48%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$972per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$11,429now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,121
7 days+$2,475
14 days+$2,475
30 days+$2,475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$14
world 21% −$737
tech 15% +$545
economics 12% +$212
finance 7% +$687
politics 5% +$245
sports 2% +$1,121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+54.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +90.6% +72.4% 100% 60% +27.5%
≤30d 5 +90.6% +72.4% 100% 60% +27.5%
≤90d 7 +70.6% +54.4% 100% 57% +22.9%
all 7 +70.6% +54.4% 100% 57% +22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +54.4% 57% +22.9%
10% +39.6% 57% +11.2%
15% +26.1% 29% +0.4%
20% +13.7% 14% -9.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% too few recent
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$413 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$11,429
Realized+$2,894
Unrealized−$830
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions14
Markets (closed)7 / 21
History coverage61d
Avg bet$972
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $1,500 $1,537 +$37 (+2%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 52¢ 65¢ $1,000 $1,245 +$245 (+25%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $1,139 +$139 (+14%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $1,000 $1,090 +$90 (+9%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $1,000 $1,005 +$5 (+1%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $1,000 $989 −$11 (-1%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 74¢ $1,000 $971 −$29 (-3%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $1,000 $914 −$86 (-9%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 81¢ $800 $798 −$2 (-0%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 88¢ 95¢ $500 $538 +$38 (+8%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 83¢ 90¢ $490 $525 +$35 (+7%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $399 $385 −$14 (-3%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 31¢ 18¢ $270 $153 −$117 (-43%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ $1,300 $139 −$1,161 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $307 +$1,121 +365%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,524 +$687 +45%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $220 +$10 +5%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 11 $2,500 +$212 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $1,500 +$445 +30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 08 $1,000 +$349 +35%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 08 $1,000 +$65 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $1,007 2h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $805 2h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 83¢ $1,005 2h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $1,004 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $307 16h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 88¢ $2,211 2d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,021 3d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 60¢ $1,524 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,029 3d
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $231 3d
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju SELL Yes 98¢ $1,350 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $1,723 3d
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju SELL Yes 99¢ $1,361 3d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $493 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $300 19d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 19d
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $220 20d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $222 20d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 86¢ $400 20d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 52¢ $1,019 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $1,000 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 100¢ $1,349 38d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 43¢ $70 57d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,500 60d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1,500 60d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $1,000 60d
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $500 60d
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju BUY Yes 91¢ $2,500 60d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 74¢ $1,000 60d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,000 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,428.84 · official $11,428.84 (match) · 93 history records