Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F0 0xf0ea…8110 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$22 (+7%) realized +$51 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$48
other 23% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -35.8% -41.9% 12% 12% -56.7%
≤30d 8 -35.8% -41.9% 12% 12% -56.7%
≤90d 8 -35.8% -41.9% 12% 12% -56.7%
all 19 +10.0% -0.5% 42% 42% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 42% +10.2%
10% -10.0% 42% -0.4%
15% -18.7% 42% -10.0%
20% -26.7% 37% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$9 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)19 / 27
History coverage227d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 92¢ 27¢ $40 $12 −$28 (-71%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$21 +414%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Jazz vs. Lakers Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Nov 13 $16 +$9 +59%
Cavaliers vs. Heat Nov 13 $15 +$30 +194%
Hawks vs. Clippers Nov 11 $14 +$26 +178%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 11 $16 +$10 +61%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Nov 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Jazz vs. Pistons Nov 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Suns vs. Warriors Nov 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Thunder vs. Clippers Nov 05 $16 +$8 +50%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Nov 04 $20 +$27 +133%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Nov 02 $15 +$16 +108%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 02 $15 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 44h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 44h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 44h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $5 44h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 92¢ $40 146d
Jazz vs. Lakers BUY Jazz 22¢ $11 207d
Nuggets vs. Clippers BUY Nuggets 63¢ $16 214d
Cavaliers vs. Heat BUY Cavaliers 34¢ $15 214d
Hawks vs. Clippers BUY Hawks 36¢ $14 216d
Spurs vs. Lakers BUY Spurs 29¢ $4 220d
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers BUY Thunder 36¢ $14 220d
Jazz vs. Pistons BUY Jazz 30¢ $15 221d
76ers vs. Cavaliers BUY 76ers 24¢ $16 221d
Thunder vs. Clippers SELL Thunder 99¢ $8 221d
Thunder vs. Clippers SELL Thunder 99¢ $16 221d
Thunder vs. Clippers BUY Thunder 66¢ $16 221d
Suns vs. Warriors BUY Suns 20¢ $15 222d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 62¢ $16 223d
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers BUY Lakers 43¢ $11 223d
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers BUY Lakers 43¢ $9 223d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner SELL Top Esports 37¢ $14 224d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 40¢ $15 224d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.79 · official $45.80 (match) · 49 history records