Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:16:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0ea…2f71 sports 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,011 (+13%) realized +$2,011 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate68%63W / 29L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day80.6pace
Fees−$158est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$51
world 24% −$273
crypto 18% +$1,828
other 8% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +0.4% -9.1% 68% 17% -0.2%
≤30d 92 +0.4% -9.1% 68% 17% -0.2%
≤90d 92 +0.4% -9.1% 68% 17% -0.2%
all 92 +0.4% -9.1% 68% 17% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 17% -0.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 8% -9.8%
15% -25.8% 7% -18.5%
20% -33.0% 4% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$36 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,011
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses63 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$158
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage4d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day80.6
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $30 +$4 +12%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $12 +$1 +10%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $27 −$2 -7%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $23 +$3 +12%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $51 +$11 +21%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $28 −$28 -98%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $45 −$11 -24%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $3 +$1 +16%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $54 −$53 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $30 +$19 +65%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $649 +$15 +2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $24 −$23 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,649 −$273 -8%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $28 −$28 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $37 −$2 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $334 +$31 +9%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $128 −$50 -39%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $169 +$12 +7%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $40 +$2 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $161 +$63 +39%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 +$4 +58%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $15 +$2 +15%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $120 −$2 -2%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $22 +$2 +9%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $134 +$5 +4%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $169 +$6 +4%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $157 +$2 +1%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $26 +$1 +5%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $13 +$2 +14%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $114 +$6 +5%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $45 +$1 +3%
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 15 $77 −$3 -4%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $66 +$1 +1%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $135 +$8 +6%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $208 +$3 +1%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $141 −$20 -14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $88 −$26 -30%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $704 −$332 -47%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $80 −$3 -4%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $840 +$214 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,717 +$1,828 +67%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $106 +$1 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $74 −$2 -3%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $162 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 51¢ $0 7m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 51¢ $19 7m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 41¢ $16 7m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Hugo Gaston 47¢ $0 19m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Hugo Gaston 47¢ $0 19m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Hugo Gaston 46¢ $4 19m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 44¢ $4 19m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Tallon Griekspoor 85¢ $0 27m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Tallon Griekspoor 85¢ $10 27m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 76¢ $10 27m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Jakub Mensik 63¢ $26 30m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 66¢ $27 30m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Tallon Griekspoor 35¢ $0 32m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Tallon Griekspoor 35¢ $0 32m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Tallon Griekspoor 35¢ $3 32m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 31¢ $3 32m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Marcos Giron 74¢ $0 39m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Marcos Giron 74¢ $15 39m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 70¢ $14 39m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg SELL Genaro Alberto Olivieri 55¢ $11 44m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 48¢ $10 46m
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 19¢ $28 1h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 89¢ $23 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 82¢ $27 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 82¢ $24 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 62¢ $16 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 51¢ $22 2h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 11¢ $24 2h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 11¢ $30 2h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Federico Bondioli 56¢ $8 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.26 · official $0.00 (match) · 338 history records