Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:55:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0ea…86ca weather 1356 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$41
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate50%678W / 677L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day42.2pace
Fees−$278est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$54
14 days−$55
30 days−$642
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$100
weather 9% −$109
crypto 5% −$286
other 4% +$58
world 0% +$4
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -15.2% -23.3% 53% 53% -25.6%
≤30d 174 -22.7% -30.0% 41% 29% -20.5%
≤90d 1355 -7.8% -16.6% 50% 37% -12.0%
all 1355 -7.8% -16.6% 50% 37% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 37% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 27% -20.4%
15% -31.8% 18% -28.1%
20% -38.5% 14% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses678 / 677
Est. fees paid−$278
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1355 / 1356
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day42.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 16¢ $15 $57 +$41 (+266%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 325 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 +$14 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $18 +$11 +63%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 +$3 +52%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $18 +$11 +61%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$14 -68%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $21 −$20 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$3 +15%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $27 −$15 -56%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $18 −$17 -95%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $9 +$10 +106%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $19 +$10 +51%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 +$18 +111%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $11 +$4 +39%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $25 +$21 +83%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $35 +$28 +79%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $30 −$30 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $26 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $18 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $21 +$22 +103%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $12 +$8 +66%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $31 −$19 -63%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $15 −$10 -66%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $30 +$15 +49%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $40 −$39 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $61 −$60 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $30 −$1 -3%
Will HEROIC win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $31 −$7 -22%
Dota 2: NS Club vs by Owl Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group A May 27 $10 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner May 27 $10 +$4 +44%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $91 −$7 -8%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $91 +$26 +28%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $30 +$5 +16%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $30 −$2 -7%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $91 −$30 -33%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $10 +$6 +60%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $61 +$29 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $40 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $26 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $30 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $18 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $12 8h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $12 25h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL New Zealand 94¢ $12 26h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 75¢ $10 26h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 95¢ $10 29h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 62¢ $6 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $9 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $11 32h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 96¢ $29 34h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 59¢ $18 34h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Cloud Rising 15¢ $7 44h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 44¢ $20 44h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $21 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $15 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 32¢ $6 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $12 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $18 2d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 97¢ $19 2d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $7 2d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $3 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 98¢ $28 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.70 · official $56.70 (match) · 3500 history records