Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F0 0xf0e7…13bb other 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$14
politics 34% −$12
sports 11% +$35
crypto 4% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 92 +2.2% -7.6% 8% 4% -9.5%
all 103 +0.2% -9.4% 10% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 6% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 5% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×9.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage114d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $81 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $248 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $230 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $265 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $234 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $228 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $250 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $238 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $311 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $307 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 20 $237 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $231 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $243 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $282 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $319 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $279 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $284 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $260 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $283 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $258 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $295 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $312 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $225 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 13 $285 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $245 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 12 $331 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $321 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $229 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $326 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 10 $253 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $300 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $281 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $279 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 3d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 8d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 8d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $248 19d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $248 24d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $230 25d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $230 26d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $243 26d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $243 28d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $300 28d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $300 28d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $297 28d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $297 29d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $265 29d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $265 30d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $297 32d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $297 33d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 33d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $234 33d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $228 34d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $228 34d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $263 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.99 · official $27.99 (match) · 291 history records