Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0e7…3448 other 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 227L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$12
14 days−$26
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$43
sports 22% −$20
politics 9% −$8
culture 7% −$5
crypto 6% −$3
economics 6% −$3
world 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 236 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)236 / 237
History coverage128d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $269 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $163 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $308 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $317 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $583 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $601 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $554 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $159 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $375 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $122 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $109 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $436 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $262 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $112 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $381 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $158 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $263 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $230 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $334 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $283 −$3 -1%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $457 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $181 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $171 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $308 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 06 $572 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $113 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $46 2h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $46 4h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $46 8h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $46 10h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $46 11h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $46 12h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 14h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 16h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 17h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 18h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 23h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $47 24h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 32h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 33h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 36h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 38h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 39h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 40h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 42h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 43h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 45h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 47h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.06 · official $46.06 (match) · 1346 history records