Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0e6…7dba other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 26L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$2
other 26% +$12
finance 7% +$4
crypto 5% $0
sports 4% −$9
economics 4% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +2.7% -7.1% 45% 18% -8.2%
≤90d 13 +2.2% -7.5% 46% 15% -8.4%
all 35 +3.2% -6.7% 26% 9% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 9% -8.5%
10% -15.6% 6% -17.3%
15% -23.7% 3% -25.2%
20% -31.2% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage251d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $67 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $52 −$5 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $60 +$4 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $9 −$1 -9%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $3 $0 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 22 $12 +$4 +32%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $17 −$4 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $13 +$3 +21%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $37 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $60 +$5 +9%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Dec 16 $23 $0 +1%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 12 $7 +$12 +186%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $7 $0 +0%
Clippers vs. Hornets Nov 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $15 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Brian Rast win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Oct 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31? Oct 11 $5 $0 -4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Kleber Mendonça Filho win Best Director at the 98th Academy Award Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $67 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $67 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $67 15h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $17 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $21 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $52 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $15 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $42 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $5 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $58 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $26 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $26 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $13 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $15 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $13 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.62 · official $66.62 (match) · 145 history records