Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:06:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F0 0xf0e6…5173 crypto 169 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%167W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$422now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$9
14 days+$27
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$77
world 0% −$71
other 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 42 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 159 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.5%
all 168 -0.0% -9.5% 99% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 1% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$71 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$422
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses167 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)168 / 169
History coverage131d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $422 $422 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $80 on June 16? Jun 17 $421 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $421 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $420 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 14? Jun 15 $109 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 14? Jun 15 $311 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $417 +$3 +1%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 12? Jun 13 $417 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $340 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $77 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 11? Jun 12 $416 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $415 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $414 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $414 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 8? Jun 09 $413 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $412 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 on June 7? Jun 08 $119 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,350 on June 7? Jun 08 $291 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 6? Jun 07 $408 +$2 +0%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 5? Jun 06 $402 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 4? Jun 05 $397 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $397 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? Jun 04 $397 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $396 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $395 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? Jun 01 $395 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? Jun 01 $394 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 on May 29? May 30 $323 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on May 29? May 30 $68 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $391 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? May 27 $390 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 26? May 26 $390 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25? May 25 $390 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 24? May 25 $246 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $75 on May 24? May 25 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 24? May 24 $387 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on May 23? May 24 $388 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 22 $386 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $387 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 19 $386 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on May 18? May 19 $387 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 18? May 18 $387 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on May 17? May 18 $385 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 17? May 17 $306 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 17 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 16? May 16 $384 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 15? May 15 $386 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,150 on May 11? May 12 $385 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 11? May 11 $352 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 11? May 11 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $422 1h
Will Solana reach $80 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $421 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $421 29h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $420 2d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $311 2d
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $109 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $417 3d
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $417 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $77 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $340 5d
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $416 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $415 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $414 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $414 8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $413 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $412 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $119 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,350 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $291 9d
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $408 10d
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 5? BUY No 98¢ $402 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $400 12d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $397 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $397 13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $397 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $396 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $395 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $395 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $394 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $68 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $323 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $422.00 · official $421.79 (match) · 358 history records