Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F0 0xf0e5…f52c crypto 400 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$216 (+2%) realized +$87 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%217W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days+$329
14 days−$159
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$102
crypto 39% +$37
other 8% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 +8.5% -1.9% 75% 52% -2.5%
≤30d 398 -0.1% -9.6% 55% 45% -8.4%
≤90d 398 -0.1% -9.6% 55% 45% -8.4%
all 398 -0.1% -9.6% 55% 45% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 45% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 36% -17.2%
15% -26.1% 28% -25.2%
20% -33.4% 22% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$87
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses217 / 181
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions2
Markets (closed)398 / 400
History coverage24d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 75¢ 96¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Forca Lleida CE vs. Basquet Club Andorra Forca Lleida CE 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Pavel Kotov Pavel Kotov 63¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will Slovakia vs. Malta end in a draw? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +26%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $15 +$10 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +19%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $14 +$14 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $67 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $67 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $191 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$13 +51%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$17 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$12 -34%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$32 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $20 +$24 +116%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$20 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $20 +$24 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 4h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 81¢ $20 4h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 82¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $28 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $41 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $61 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.79 · official $151.79 (match) · 825 history records