Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0e5…9623 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$55 (-1%) realized −$308 · open +$253
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2,673now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$146
other 26% +$171
crypto 10% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -4.4% -13.5% 56% 50% -14.9%
≤30d 16 -4.4% -13.5% 56% 50% -14.9%
≤90d 16 -4.4% -13.5% 56% 50% -14.9%
all 16 -4.4% -13.5% 56% 50% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 50% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 44% -23.1%
15% -29.4% 44% -30.5%
20% -36.3% 38% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$171 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,673
Realized−$308
Unrealized+$253
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions10
Markets (closed)16 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score No 44¢ 57¢ $363 $470 +$106 (+29%)
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals No 76¢ 84¢ $308 $338 +$30 (+10%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? No 71¢ 80¢ $288 $323 +$34 (+12%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 70¢ $232 $287 +$55 (+24%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? No 60¢ 64¢ $244 $258 +$14 (+6%)
Netherlands to score first vs. Morocco? No 48¢ 62¢ $196 $253 +$57 (+29%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 61¢ 59¢ $248 $240 −$8 (-3%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 59¢ 56¢ $240 $226 −$14 (-6%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Morocco 42¢ 44¢ $172 $182 +$10 (+6%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 19¢ 14¢ $78 $55 −$23 (-29%)
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals Yes 16¢ 10¢ $66 $42 −$24 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $371 +$31 +8%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $268 +$140 +52%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $178 +$229 +129%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $223 −$220 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $199 −$195 -98%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $355 −$353 -100%
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? Jun 29 $100 +$166 +165%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $179 +$103 +58%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 29 $219 +$43 +20%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $189 +$75 +40%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 29 $158 +$106 +67%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $139 +$126 +90%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $90 −$88 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $153 −$151 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $121 −$119 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $74 −$72 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $183 40m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 59¢ $243 42m
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $68 43m
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $310 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $251 1h
Netherlands to score first vs. Morocco? BUY No 48¢ $199 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $186 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $235 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 19¢ $80 1h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY No 71¢ $291 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 60¢ $247 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 42¢ $175 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $223 5h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $178 5h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $199 5h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY No 65¢ $268 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 92¢ $371 5h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $355 5h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY No 83¢ $50 10h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 62¢ $38 10h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $21 10h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $36 10h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? BUY No 37¢ $23 10h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $32 10h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $35 10h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Japan 71¢ $44 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 45¢ $28 10h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $17 10h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY No 83¢ $169 11h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 63¢ $11 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,673.39 · official $2,673.39 (match) · 48 history records