Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:41:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0df…69c5 other 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,828 (+3%) realized +$4,828 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate47%28W / 31L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$2,610per market
Trades / day57.4pace
Fees−$764est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$144
7 days−$574
14 days−$690
30 days+$1,160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$316
sports 14% +$3,573
politics 0% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +12.6% +1.9% 35% 12% -8.0%
≤30d 26 -0.5% -9.9% 35% 15% -6.6%
≤90d 59 +20.2% +8.7% 47% 22% -6.1%
all 59 +20.2% +8.7% 47% 22% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.7% 22% -6.1%
10% -1.7% 17% -15.1%
15% ← realistic here -11.2% 10% -23.3%
20% -19.9% 8% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$2,600) neutral
Persistence
early +27% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
28.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$72 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,828
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses28 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$764
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$2,610
Trades / day57.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12,215 −$57 -0%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$7 -22%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $160 −$10 -6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,107 +$269 +24%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6,000 −$1,200 -20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,116 −$21 -2%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7,579 +$155 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $181 +$13 +7%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4,142 −$1 -0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3,120 +$10 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10,339 −$109 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8,503 +$135 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4,814 −$60 -1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6,316 +$387 +6%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,150 −$116 -10%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 01 $396 +$95 +24%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $27,939 +$200 +1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $223 −$2 -1%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after May 23 $38 −$37 -96%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t May 22 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $5,151 +$1,609 +31%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $101 −$1 -1%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $2,363 +$188 +8%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $277 +$41 +15%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $85 +$2 +3%
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $85 +$122 +143%
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $85 +$5 +5%
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $14 +$86 +614%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $96 +$7 +8%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $54 +$46 +85%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,122 −$33 -3%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $3,362 −$88 -3%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $4,509 +$28 +1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 11 $5,364 −$28 -0%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 10 $6,910 +$1,921 +28%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1,350 −$117 -9%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $892 −$3 -0%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1,244 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $3,191 −$123 -4%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2,600 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $361 +$12 +3%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $33 +$2 +6%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? May 02 $1,262 −$25 -2%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $10,111 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $36 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 50¢ $7 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 50¢ $5,964 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $6,318 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $0 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $19 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $39 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $20 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $2 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $49 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $97 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $20 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $10 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $29 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $1 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $10 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $555 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $10 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $6 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $26 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $9 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $28 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $9 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $55 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records