Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0da…749b sports 218 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,114 (+4%) realized +$1,833 · open −$719
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate21%46W / 169L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day58.0pace
Fees−$423est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5,020
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-60.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -45.2% -50.4% 25% 22% -21.8%
≤30d 215 -56.3% -60.5% 21% 20% -27.1%
≤90d 215 -56.3% -60.5% 21% 20% -27.1%
all 215 -56.3% -60.5% 21% 20% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -60.5% 20% -27.1%
10% ← realistic here -64.3% 18% -34.1%
15% -67.7% 12% -40.5%
20% -70.9% 8% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -66% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$56 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$1,535
Realized+$1,833
Unrealized−$719
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses46 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$423
Open positions3
Markets (closed)215 / 218
History coverage15d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day58.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 21¢ 100¢ $212 $990 +$778 (+368%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 61¢ 100¢ $180 $294 +$114 (+63%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ 100¢ $250 $251 +$1 (+0%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 28¢ 0¢ $290 $1 −$289 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 36¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 66¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 145 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $77 +$76 +99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $438 +$451 +103%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $430 −$400 -93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $75 +$191 +254%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $231 +$43 +19%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $357 −$259 -72%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $120 −$117 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $142 −$3 -2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $612 +$263 +43%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $492 −$27 -5%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $294 −$44 -15%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $553 +$22 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $213 +$16 +8%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$7 +32%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $71 −$6 -8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $265 +$173 +65%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$11 -11%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$66 +33%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $142 −$140 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $568 +$624 +110%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $123 −$110 -89%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $254 −$250 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $464 −$460 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $487 −$66 -14%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $713 +$443 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $163 −$92 -56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $86 +$222 +257%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $417 −$320 -77%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $36 −$35 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $858 +$55 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $264 −$260 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $346 −$100 -29%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $376 +$891 +237%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 28¢ $51 28m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 16¢ $51 33m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 5¢ $12 43m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 78¢ $50 45m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 36¢ $51 55m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $51 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ $30 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 8¢ $10 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 12¢ $21 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 85¢ $100 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 28¢ $20 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 68¢ $61 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $51 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 34¢ $102 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 34¢ $41 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 26¢ $31 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 25¢ $10 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $30 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $100 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $100 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $50 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 19¢ $51 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 24¢ $51 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $101 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $102 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 9¢ $10 14h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 10¢ $5 17h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 8¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 13¢ $5 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,535.20 · official $1,535.20 (match) · 901 history records