Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:09:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F0 0xf0da…2342 crypto 847 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$403 (+2%) realized +$860 · open +$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate65%546W / 295L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day38.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$154
14 days+$199
30 days+$514
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% +$1,010
crypto 8% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 259 -4.4% -13.5% 63% 60% -2.6%
≤30d 361 -1.0% -10.4% 73% 50% -3.7%
≤90d 841 -3.7% -12.9% 65% 42% -4.9%
all 841 -3.7% -12.9% 65% 42% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 42% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 37% -14.0%
15% -28.8% 28% -22.3%
20% -35.8% 21% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5.4606038095266785% → late -1.9581857286436553% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized+$860
Unrealized+$77
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses546 / 295
Open positions6
Markets (closed)841 / 847
History coverage60d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 841 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Yes 39¢ 100¢ $20 $51 +$31 (+156%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Yes 46¢ 100¢ $20 $43 +$23 (+117%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Yes 65¢ 100¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on June 15? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 74¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 +$29 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.27 · official $165.47 (match) · 3500 history records