Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:15:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F0 0xf0d8…f5e2 crypto 204 markets active 4d ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,747 (-41%) realized −$1,861 · open +$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%15W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$1,271
other 28% −$520
world 11% −$163
finance 9% +$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-64.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 57 -74.0% -76.5% 5% 2% -56.7%
all 201 -60.5% -64.3% 7% 5% -50.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.3% 5% -50.7%
10% -67.7% 4% -55.4%
15% -70.8% 4% -59.7%
20% -73.7% 4% -63.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -77% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$13 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized−$1,861
Unrealized+$114
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses15 / 186
Open positions3
Markets (closed)201 / 204
History coverage154d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 7¢ 38¢ $35 $190 +$154 (+435%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $83 $48 −$35 (-42%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $13 −$9 -67%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $41 −$15 -38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? May 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? May 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Apr 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 02 $151 −$35 -23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 02 $10 −$9 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 02 $7 −$6 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 02 $10 −$9 -93%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 25 $15 +$28 +183%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25? Mar 25 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 23-29? Mar 25 $14 −$8 -62%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 23-29? Mar 25 $11 −$3 -32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 23-29? Mar 25 $4 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 23-29? Mar 25 $9 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 24 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 24? Mar 23 $21 −$14 -67%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 23 $673 −$179 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $41 −$40 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $59 −$56 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $30 −$21 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 19? Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 19? Mar 22 $25 −$17 -68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 20? Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 18? Mar 22 $15 −$9 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 22? Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 22? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $37 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $36 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $36 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 5d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 31d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 31d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 32d
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 32d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 32d
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 32d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 32d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $25 35d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $23 39d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? BUY Down 1¢ $4 44d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 30-April 5? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 76d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 30-April 5? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 76d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 30-April 5? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 76d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 83d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 84d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $7 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.65 · official $282.65 (match) · 518 history records