Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F0 0xf0d6…8704 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$66 (+40%) realized +$73 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$73
14 days+$73
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$79
other 12% +$1
crypto 6% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+61.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +78.0% +61.1% 100% 100% +59.4%
≤30d 3 +78.0% +61.1% 100% 100% +59.4%
≤90d 3 +78.0% +61.1% 100% 100% +59.4%
all 3 +78.0% +61.1% 100% 100% +59.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +61.1% 100% +59.4%
10% +45.7% 100% +44.2%
15% +31.6% 100% +30.2%
20% +18.7% 100% +17.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +76% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +78% · $-wt +76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)3 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 100¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+113%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 41¢ 80¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+96%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 47¢ 26¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $55 +$40 +74%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$8 +81%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 +$24 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $10 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $10 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $10 4h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 61¢ $24 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $30 6h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $30 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.88 · official $86.88 (match) · 13 history records