Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F0 0xf0d4…e175 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$1,599 (+29%) realized +$1,597 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate61%22W / 14L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$741
7 days+$1,408
14 days+$1,408
30 days+$1,492
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$1,388
sports 13% +$358
world 3% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +26.8% +14.7% 55% 50% +21.5%
≤30d 21 +41.0% +27.6% 57% 52% +23.2%
≤90d 36 +34.4% +21.6% 61% 58% +21.8%
all 36 +34.4% +21.6% 61% 58% +21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.6% 58% +21.8%
10% +10.0% 47% +10.1%
15% -0.6% 39% -0.5%
20% -10.4% 36% -10.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$58 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.19 per $1 lost it wins $3.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized+$1,597
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage46d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$222 +73%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $463 +$99 +21%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $304 +$196 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $438 +$362 +83%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$231 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $941 +$59 +6%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $477 +$523 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $13 +$57 +442%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $26 +$84 +325%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Germany come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $86 +$14 +17%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $110 +$40 +37%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $68 +$66 +98%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 14 $104 +$27 +26%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 14 $51 −$26 -52%
Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $158 +$88 +56%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 14 $206 +$67 +32%
Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $15 +$35 +245%
Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 08 $51 −$10 -20%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 08 $52 −$9 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 13h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 13h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $304 27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $463 36h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $304 36h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $101 39h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $133 39h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $101 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $941 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $477 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 10d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 16d
Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 32d
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 32d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.46 · official $402.48 (match) · 79 history records