Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F0 0xf0d4…9db5 crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$44 (-4%) realized +$44 · open −$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$84
14 days+$82
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$42
world 14% −$78
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +55.7% +40.9% 57% 57% -51.8%
≤30d 39 -10.7% -19.2% 44% 38% -4.3%
≤90d 39 -10.7% -19.2% 44% 38% -4.3%
all 39 -10.7% -19.2% 44% 38% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 38% -4.3%
10% -27.0% 38% -13.5%
15% -34.0% 31% -21.8%
20% -40.5% 26% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$12 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$88
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Open positions5
Markets (closed)39 / 44
History coverage17d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $125 $130 +$5 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $74 $11 −$63 (-85%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $37 $9 −$28 (-75%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $15 +$10 +66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$18 +184%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +74%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$18 +365%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $133 −$132 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 06 $80 −$11 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$6 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 05 $11 +$5 +44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $139 +$79 +57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $51 +$15 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $97 +$8 +8%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $72 +$68 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 01 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 01 $15 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 01 $14 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 01 $14 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 01 $13 +$9 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 01 $11 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 01 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 31 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 31 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 31 $21 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 31 $21 −$20 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 31 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 31 $46 +$50 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 31 $36 +$8 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 31 $25 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $93 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $17 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $23 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 1¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 90¢ $133 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? SELL No 71¢ $42 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 65¢ $38 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? SELL Yes 43¢ $19 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $15 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.55 · official $153.55 (match) · 99 history records