Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:23:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0d1…ff10 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$89 (+16%) realized +$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$199
other 4% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -27.0% -33.9% 33% 33% -40.0%
≤30d 6 -27.0% -33.9% 33% 33% -40.0%
≤90d 6 -27.0% -33.9% 33% 33% -40.0%
all 6 -27.0% -33.9% 33% 33% -40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 33% -40.0%
10% -40.2% 33% -45.8%
15% -46.0% 17% -51.0%
20% -51.3% 17% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$85 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $213 −$139 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$140 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $105 −$69 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $28 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $242 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records