Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:47:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F0 0xf0d0…028a crypto 1295 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$637 (+7%) realized +$595 · open +$42
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%748W / 542L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$1
14 days−$90
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$613
crypto 48% −$51
other 1% $0
world 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +56.4% +41.5% 62% 51% -9.6%
≤30d 248 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 46% -10.6%
≤90d 1216 +1.4% -8.3% 57% 52% -3.2%
all 1290 +1.3% -8.3% 58% 49% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 49% -4.0%
10% -17.1% 42% -13.2%
15% -25.1% 34% -21.6%
20% -32.5% 26% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$595
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses748 / 542
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1290 / 1295
History coverage102d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 48¢ 88¢ $50 $92 +$42 (+84%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A AlQadsiah Esports 48¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 198 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 21 $1 +$18 +1735%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 21 $32 +$18 +56%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $15 +$7 +46%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $2 +$3 +105%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $47 −$47 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $6 +$4 +60%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $4 +$1 +29%
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 +5%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $42 +$8 +20%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$1 -7%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $20 +$9 +46%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 18 $6 +$9 +149%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 18 $5 +$6 +119%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $12 −$1 -11%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +80%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 17 $4 +$1 +23%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $26 +$24 +90%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$5 +79%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $7 −$1 -22%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bryson Stott: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Hunter Goodman: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Andy Pages: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bobby Witt Jr.: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Carlos Cortes: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Francisco Alvarez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 +$8 +27%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $7 −$2 -25%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $7 +$3 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Passion Academy 66¢ $3 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 24h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 26h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 26h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $15 31h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 48¢ $2 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 41h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $47 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 47h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 47h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 77¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 100 Thieves 61¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 100 Thieves 63¢ $3 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 54¢ $10 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 94¢ $20 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming $2 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $20 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY Inner Circle Esports 68¢ $5 3d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY AlQadsiah Esports 48¢ $5 3d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 97¢ $5 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 68¢ $20 3d
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY Dplus 37¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 4d
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY ROSE 43¢ $4 4d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 61¢ $3 5d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 40¢ $2 5d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 51¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.57 · official $137.57 (match) · 3127 history records