Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:25:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F0 0xf0cf…4b66 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$283 (+10%) realized +$133 · open +$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$2,129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 36% +$347
world 31% −$34
other 31% +$42
politics 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +60.1% +44.9% 100% 100% +25.0%
≤30d 4 +20.1% +8.7% 75% 75% +19.8%
≤90d 4 +20.1% +8.7% 75% 75% +19.8%
all 4 +20.1% +8.7% 75% 75% +19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.7% 75% +19.8%
10% -1.7% 75% +8.3%
15% -11.2% 50% -2.1%
20% -19.9% 25% -11.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$26 · ×2.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.78 per $1 lost it wins $8.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$2,129
Realized+$133
Unrealized+$150
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)4 / 18
History coverage7d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 35¢ 54¢ $415 $648 +$233 (+56%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $504 $536 +$32 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $468 $378 −$89 (-19%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $130 $135 +$5 (+4%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $114 $120 +$5 (+5%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $110 $108 −$2 (-2%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $49 $46 −$3 (-6%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will T1 win MSI 2026? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $33 $36 +$3 (+9%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $35 $22 −$12 (-36%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $25 $8 −$17 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 22 $417 +$130 +31%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $152 +$68 +45%
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 17 $29 +$30 +104%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $128 19h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 19h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 19h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $35 21h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 22h
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 24h
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 26h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 38h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 95¢ $191 42h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 5¢ $48 42h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 42h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 34¢ $34 42h
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 42h
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 42h
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 43h
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 43h
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 43h
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 43h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 95¢ $101 43h
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 77¢ $153 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 43h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 95¢ $50 43h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 95¢ $36 43h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 95¢ $2 43h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 84¢ $168 46h
Will T1 win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will T1 win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 2d
Will T1 win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,129.16 · official $2,087.96 · 97 history records