Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:40:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0ca…f5d0 other 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$340 (-7%) realized −$340 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%48W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$153
7 days−$699
14 days−$634
30 days−$932
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$23
sports 22% −$333
crypto 7% +$24
world 6% −$105
politics 5% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -38.4% -44.3% 30% 22% -40.8%
≤30d 42 -51.2% -55.9% 24% 19% -44.0%
≤90d 64 -13.7% -21.9% 25% 20% -28.5%
all 112 +2.3% -7.4% 43% 34% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 34% -16.1%
10% -16.3% 29% -24.2%
15% -24.4% 21% -31.5%
20% -31.8% 14% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$25 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$340
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses48 / 64
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 114
History coverage594d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $165 −$15 -9%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $72 −$20 -28%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$16 -80%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 19 $51 +$19 +38%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 19 $17 +$9 +54%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $165 −$15 -9%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $150 −$18 -12%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 +$10 +19%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$40 +79%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 −$17 -16%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $132 −$82 -62%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$16 +32%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $127 −$125 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 −$21 -42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$45 +44%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +54%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$10 +99%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-24? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-04? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-05? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-26? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Delija vs. Cortes-Acosta Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $84 −$58 -68%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $51 −$6 -11%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $52 −$24 -46%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $21 −$2 -9%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? May 11 $15 −$15 -100%
AC Milan vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 31¢ $9 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 32¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $150 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $51 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 20¢ $102 17h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 24h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $31 43h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- SELL 55¢ $70 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 39¢ $51 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 65¢ $4 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 65¢ $14 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovin BUY 32¢ $20 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 14¢ $150 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $165 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $132 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $150 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 15¢ $61 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 61¢ $101 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $101 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $85 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $100.00 · 288 history records