Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:40:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0ca…117a sports 1107 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$894 (-1%) realized −$892 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%477W / 624L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Fees−$1,622est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$183
30 days−$1,649
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$988
other 8% −$587
world 0% +$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 164 -13.4% -21.7% 38% 38% -19.6%
≤90d 1101 -1.8% -11.2% 43% 43% -10.8%
all 1101 -1.8% -11.2% 43% 43% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 43% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 43% -19.3%
15% -27.4% 42% -27.1%
20% -34.5% 41% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$90 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$892
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses477 / 624
Est. fees paid−$1,622
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1101 / 1107
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$95
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 55¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 48¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $19 −$18 -98%
Spread: China PR (-1.5) Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Kamatamare Sanuki vs. AC Nagano Parceiro: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $39 −$38 -98%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $4 +$3 +82%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $80 −$80 -100%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $119 +$51 +43%
FC Universitario vs. Club Aurora: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $113 +$60 +54%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $50 +$50 +100%
CD Palestino vs. Audax CS Italiano: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $51 −$50 -98%
Poland vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 2.5 May 31 $50 +$50 +100%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 3.5 May 31 $50 +$50 +100%
São Bernardo FC vs. Grêmio Novorizontino: O/U 2.5 May 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Londrina EC vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 1.5 May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Switzerland vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 May 31 $94 +$74 +79%
Degerfors IF vs. IF Brommapojkarna: O/U 4.5 May 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 0.5 May 31 $50 +$50 +100%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 1.5 May 31 $50 +$50 +100%
Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5 May 31 $50 +$50 +100%
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 2.5 May 31 $31 −$30 -98%
Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 2.5 May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
SC Recife vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 1.5 May 31 $50 +$50 +100%
Mexico vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 May 31 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Molde FK vs. Sandefjord Fotball: O/U 2.5 May 30 $37 +$69 +186%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 1.5 May 30 $20 +$30 +150%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
AD Ceuta FC vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 1.5 May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
GAIS vs. Kalmar FF: O/U 2.5 May 30 $6 +$22 +365%
AIK vs. IK Sirius: O/U 2.5 May 30 $50 +$49 +98%
GAIS vs. Kalmar FF: O/U 1.5 May 30 $50 +$49 +98%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $34 +$35 +102%
Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 May 30 $34 +$35 +102%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $34 −$34 -100%
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: Draw at halftime? May 30 $38 +$31 +81%
Kataller Toyama vs. Tegevajaro Miyazaki: O/U 1.5 May 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $48 −$48 -98%
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 1.5 May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Avispa Fukuoka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5 May 30 $10 +$28 +276%
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 1.5 May 30 $40 +$60 +150%
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$2 -98%
Ehime FC vs. Roasso Kumamoto: O/U 1.5 May 30 $28 −$28 -100%
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 2.5 May 30 $9 −$9 -98%
Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5 May 30 $30 +$33 +108%
SC Sagamihara vs. Fujieda MYFC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 1h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $54 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $55 1h
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $19 11d
Spread: China PR (-1.5) BUY China PR 28¢ $51 12d
Kamatamare Sanuki vs. AC Nagano Parceiro: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $39 12d
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 55¢ $4 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $7 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $73 13d
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $119 15d
FC Universitario vs. Club Aurora: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $28 15d
FC Universitario vs. Club Aurora: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $8 15d
FC Universitario vs. Club Aurora: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $4 15d
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $173 15d
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $113 15d
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $40 16d
CD Palestino vs. Audax CS Italiano: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 16d
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $44 16d
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $0 16d
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 16d
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 16d
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 16d
Poland vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 16d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 16d
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 16d
São Bernardo FC vs. Grêmio Novorizontino: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $4 16d
São Bernardo FC vs. Grêmio Novorizontino: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $12 16d
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $22 16d
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.50 · official $212.50 (match) · 3487 history records