Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0c5…ffff crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (147 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%6W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day147.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$265
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (147 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -43.4% -48.8% 26% 26% -36.5%
≤30d 23 -43.4% -48.8% 26% 26% -36.5%
≤90d 23 -43.4% -48.8% 26% 26% -36.5%
all 23 -43.4% -48.8% 26% 26% -36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover147.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.8% 26% -36.5%
10% ← realistic here -53.7% 26% -42.5%
15% -58.2% 22% -48.1%
20% -62.3% 22% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$33 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses6 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day147.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 39¢ 36¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$10 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$37 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $66 −$63 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$33 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $68 −$45 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $68 +$23 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $125 +$119 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$34 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$20 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $91 −$78 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$25 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$43 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$39 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.97 · official $50.13 · 153 history records