Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:43:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0c2…b793 crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (121 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$321 (-2%) realized −$534 · open +$213
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate36%13W / 23L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$456per market
Trades / day121.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$3,133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$5,394
other 2% −$28
weather 2% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (121 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -30.8% -37.4% 36% 28% -40.6%
≤30d 36 -30.8% -37.4% 36% 28% -40.6%
≤90d 36 -30.8% -37.4% 36% 28% -40.6%
all 36 -30.8% -37.4% 36% 28% -40.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover121.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.4% 28% -40.6%
10% ← realistic here -43.4% 28% -46.3%
15% -48.8% 25% -51.5%
20% -53.8% 19% -56.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$680) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -45% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$386 vs −$463 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3,133
Realized−$534
Unrealized+$213
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses13 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)36 / 44
History coverage1d
Avg bet$456
Trades / day121.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Down 52¢ 62¢ $1,000 $1,210 +$210 (+21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $1,000 $980 −$20 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 69¢ 77¢ $300 $333 +$33 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 30? No 51¢ 54¢ $250 $262 +$12 (+5%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $110 $106 −$4 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $110 $92 −$18 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 30? Yes 24¢ 27¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $1,137 +$985 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $828 −$800 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $524 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $1,035 +$947 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $311 +$333 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $830 +$956 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $315 +$870 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $711 −$680 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $97 +$41 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $973 −$940 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $1,655 −$1,085 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $517 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $1,055 −$1,019 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $543 −$520 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $307 +$147 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $922 −$600 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $464 +$349 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $306 +$97 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $315 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $211 −$150 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $631 −$600 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 29 $634 −$599 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $105 +$290 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 29 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $190 −$180 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 29 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 29 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 29 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 29 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $295 −$295 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $131 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $386 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $518 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $261 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $256 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $253 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $264 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $105 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $412 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $518 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $311 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $518 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $310 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $279 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $260 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $76 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $181 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $316 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $517 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $517 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $133 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,133.30 · official $3,152.66 (match) · 141 history records