Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:59:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0c0…a779 sports 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$599 (-10%) realized −$599 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%36W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,367
7 days−$1,271
14 days−$693
30 days−$640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$11
sports 42% −$639
crypto 6% +$107
world 2% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -26.4% -33.4% 45% 45% -48.6%
≤30d 60 -2.5% -11.8% 60% 58% -19.3%
≤90d 60 -2.5% -11.8% 60% 58% -19.3%
all 60 -2.5% -11.8% 60% 58% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 58% -19.3%
10% -20.2% 45% -27.0%
15% -27.9% 37% -34.1%
20% -35.0% 18% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$87 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$599
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses36 / 24
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage20d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Under 73¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $100 +$12 +12%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 +$5 +19%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $50 +$5 +11%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $29 −$4 -15%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $130 +$50 +39%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $49 −$49 -99%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $121 −$121 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $141 −$141 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 18 $134 −$134 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $201 −$201 -100%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 18 $399 −$399 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $49 +$49 +100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $110 −$109 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $110 −$109 -99%
Games Total: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $55 −$54 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $62 +$44 +70%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$39 +197%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $102 +$47 +46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $114 +$57 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $158 +$56 +36%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $99 +$59 +59%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $100 +$71 +70%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $99 +$43 +43%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $80 −$79 -99%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 11 $44 +$36 +82%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $39 +$5 +12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $34 +$5 +14%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $100 −$66 -66%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $50 +$7 +14%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $50 +$7 +13%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 10 $127 +$63 +50%
Indonesia leading at halftime? Jun 09 $89 +$73 +83%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 +$11 +206%
Cambodia leading at halftime? Jun 09 $5 +$14 +276%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 09 $94 +$53 +56%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $202 +$88 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $254 +$69 +27%
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $201 +$55 +28%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 08 $180 +$94 +52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $160 +$12 +8%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $125 +$43 +34%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $217 −$4 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $50 46m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $25 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $25 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY No 89¢ $100 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $50 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $180 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 63¢ $31 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 74¢ $99 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $49 6h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $98 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $98 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $49 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $50 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 35¢ $99 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $110 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 70¢ $110 4d
Games Total: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 52¢ $55 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 95¢ $106 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $62 5d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $59 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 5d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $20 5d
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $48 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $149 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $102 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $171 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $114 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $214 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.66 · official $49.66 (match) · 118 history records