Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:42:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0bf…03d1 other 270 markets active 1h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-3%) realized −$59 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%91W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$125
14 days−$16
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$108
sports 26% +$49
world 0% +$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +42.6% +29.0% 80% 80% +46.3%
≤30d 26 +55.7% +40.9% 69% 69% -8.4%
≤90d 35 +34.6% +21.8% 57% 57% -8.5%
all 249 -2.1% -11.4% 37% 37% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 37% -12.8%
10% -19.9% 37% -21.1%
15% -27.6% 35% -28.7%
20% -34.7% 33% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses91 / 158
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)249 / 270
History coverage212d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 157 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $90 +$60 +67%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $54 +$36 +67%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $33 +$20 +60%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $15 +$18 +119%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $111 +$61 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $69 +$49 +70%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $18 −$18 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $85 −$84 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $66 +$26 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 −$65 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: France (- Jun 17 $1 +$11 +1072%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $44 +$21 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $35 +$10 +27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $28 +$7 +24%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $18 +$10 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $14 +$4 +32%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $7 +$2 +36%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 +$3 +291%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-06? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $3 +$3 +90%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $5 +$3 +50%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-31? May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CD Castellón vs. SD Eibar end in a draw? May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $2 +$3 +146%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $4 −$4 -99%
Will SD Huesca vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SD Huesca win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw? May 23 $2 +$6 +317%
Will Fortuna Sittard vs. FC Twente '65 end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-03-21? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-03-22? Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Levante UD end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 +$3 +300%
Will Burnley FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Mar 16 $1 +$3 +300%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-03-16? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-15? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Como 1907 vs. AS Roma end in a draw? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-13? Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Mar 13 $1 +$3 +245%
Will Sevilla FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 13 $2 +$3 +224%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Porto end in a draw? Mar 13 $2 +$5 +233%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Braz BUY 3¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $121 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (- BUY 5¢ $1 20h
Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 22h
Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 22h
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 22h
Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 22h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 22h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 22h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $90 23h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $54 47h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $33 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 45¢ $15 5d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (- BUY 8¢ $5 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 8d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecua BUY 20¢ $7 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $111 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $69 9d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY 65¢ $81 10d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 62¢ $18 10d
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 8¢ $1 10d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U BUY 14¢ $5 11d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $85 11d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $66 11d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 4.5 Corners AND Spread: Portugal (-1. BUY 8¢ $1 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $65 11d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: France (- BUY 8¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.72 · official $198.69 (match) · 363 history records