Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:07:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F0 0xf0be…8d08 sports 320 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,537 (-1%) realized −$3,574 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate76%243W / 75L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,300per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Fees−$163est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$458
14 days+$310
30 days+$385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$4,574
sports 22% −$480
crypto 16% +$790
politics 7% +$672
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +14.4% +3.5% 88% 71% +7.7%
≤30d 71 +4.9% -5.1% 72% 62% -4.5%
≤90d 173 +1.2% -8.4% 70% 46% -7.1%
all 318 -0.7% -10.1% 76% 30% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 30% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 18% -18.9%
15% -26.6% 10% -26.7%
20% -33.8% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,656) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$221 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$356
Realized−$3,574
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses243 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$163
Open positions2
Markets (closed)318 / 320
History coverage145d
Avg bet$1,300
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland England 90¢ 90¢ $180 $181 +$1 (+1%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Pakistan 70¢ 88¢ $139 $175 +$36 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $224 +$26 +11%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $286 −$33 -12%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $46 −$14 -30%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $113 +$27 +24%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $158 +$42 +26%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $186 +$13 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $184 +$16 +8%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $129 +$20 +15%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $383 +$17 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $174 +$46 +26%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $40 +$10 +25%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $72 +$77 +107%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $54 +$21 +40%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $61 +$39 +65%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $176 +$55 +31%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $76 +$24 +31%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $332 +$72 +22%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $134 +$15 +11%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $81 +$18 +23%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $382 +$12 +3%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 09 $27 +$73 +271%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $67 −$12 -18%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $73 +$27 +37%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $112 −$111 -99%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Warwickshire Jun 07 $79 −$59 -75%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan Jun 07 $72 +$28 +38%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Kent Jun 07 $89 +$11 +12%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Yorkshire Jun 07 $84 −$84 -100%
Will England win? Jun 07 $128 +$72 +56%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 06 $165 −$114 -69%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Jun 05 $257 +$43 +16%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Somerset Jun 05 $80 +$19 +24%
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Lancashire Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 05 $107 −$106 -99%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 04 $249 −$53 -21%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $91 +$58 +64%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies Jun 03 $32 +$1 +2%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $58 −$45 -79%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $325 −$238 -73%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan May 31 $104 −$92 -88%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Derbyshire May 31 $35 +$15 +42%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $257 +$42 +16%
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Northamptonshire May 31 $36 +$64 +180%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Durham May 31 $116 +$23 +20%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex May 30 $40 −$21 -53%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Surrey May 29 $65 +$25 +38%
T20 Blast: Derbyshire vs Nottinghamshire May 29 $82 +$18 +22%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Leicestershire May 29 $39 +$6 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 73¢ $74 58m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $250 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 66¢ $66 5h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 90¢ $45 6h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 90¢ $90 6h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 89¢ $89 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland BUY England 90¢ $23 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland BUY England 90¢ $54 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland BUY England 90¢ $54 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland BUY England 90¢ $16 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL New Zealand 72¢ $59 20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL New Zealand 72¢ $4 20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL New Zealand 72¢ $2 20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL New Zealand 72¢ $7 20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 33¢ $34 21h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL New Zealand 67¢ $133 21h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland BUY England 90¢ $33 21h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 74¢ $15 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 74¢ $22 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 75¢ $38 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 88¢ $88 23h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 90¢ $90 23h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 14¢ $14 28h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 31¢ $15 29h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 63¢ $32 29h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 80¢ $140 43h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 47¢ $12 45h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 58¢ $15 46h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 66¢ $3 46h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 66¢ $3 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $355.98 · official $359.98 · 2924 history records