Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F0 0xf0bd…bc96 sports 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 592d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$728 (+39%) realized +$728 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$866
7 days+$1,336
14 days+$1,336
30 days+$1,336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$565
sports 43% +$739
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +124.5% +103.2% 88% 88% +89.9%
≤30d 8 +124.5% +103.2% 88% 88% +89.9%
≤90d 9 +99.6% +80.6% 78% 78% +75.7%
all 23 +31.9% +19.3% 61% 61% +66.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.3% 61% +66.2%
10% +7.9% 61% +50.3%
15% -2.5% 61% +35.8%
20% -12.1% 43% +22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +94% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +86% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$21 · ×5.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.93 per $1 lost it wins $7.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$728
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 28
History coverage592d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $58 +$50 +86%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $137 −$34 -25%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $50 +$43 +86%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $102 +$362 +354%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $99 +$186 +188%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$49 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $121 +$210 +173%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $548 +$470 +86%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $100 −$98 -98%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bills vs. Chiefs Jan 27 $70 +$61 +87%
Will the match between Brazil and Uruguay end in a draw? Nov 20 $8 +$11 +144%
Bengals vs. Chargers Nov 18 $75 +$36 +48%
Chiefs vs. Bills Nov 18 $5 +$2 +37%
Falcons vs. Broncos Nov 18 $5 +$2 +49%
Commanders vs. Eagles Nov 15 $10 +$6 +56%
Steelers vs. Commanders Nov 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the match between Inter Milan and Arsenal end in a draw? Nov 13 $3 −$3 -100%
49ers vs. Buccaneers Nov 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Lions vs. Texans Nov 13 $10 +$5 +54%
Bengals vs. Ravens Nov 08 $9 −$3 -38%
Will Feyenoord beat RB Salzburg? Nov 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa beat Club Brugge? Nov 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND BUY $28 4m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $57 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $55 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $45 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $17 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $32 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $48 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $43 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $50 15h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND BUY 20¢ $50 15h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $285 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $150 17h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocc BUY 13¢ $99 19h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY 28¢ $100 27h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 34¢ $99 40h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY 22¢ $102 43h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Türk BUY $28 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $121 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $545 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $472 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $548 15d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 34¢ $49 30d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 31d
Super Bowl LIX Winner BUY Chiefs 52¢ $20 496d
Bills vs. Chiefs BUY Chiefs 51¢ $50 510d
Bills vs. Chiefs BUY Chiefs 61¢ $20 510d
Will the match between Brazil and Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 578d
Bengals vs. Chargers BUY Chargers 71¢ $7 580d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $221.00 · 62 history records