Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:41:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F0 0xf0b7…2aff crypto 276 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$555 (-1%) realized −$555 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate96%264W / 10L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$701now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$13
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$232
other 44% −$313
weather 0% −$8
tech 0% −$4
world 0% −$2
sports 0% $0
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 20 -4.8% -13.8% 95% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 58 -2.7% -11.9% 97% 2% -9.3%
all 274 -2.3% -11.6% 96% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 3% -10.2%
10% -20.0% 1% -18.8%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$72 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$701
Realized−$555
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses264 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)274 / 276
History coverage230d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $700 $700 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $690 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $690 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $690 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $690 +$2 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10? Jun 10 $690 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $690 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $690 +$1 +0%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $600 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $680 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $680 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $680 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? Jun 01 $680 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $670 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $670 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $600 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $600 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 16? May 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 16 $600 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets in May 2026? May 16 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? May 15 $500 $0 +0%
Valencia: Alejandro Tabilo vs Dusan Lajovic May 15 $2 $0 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $280 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 11 $260 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 07 $670 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $660 +$1 +0%
Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr Apr 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control Apr 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $666 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 20? Apr 27 $600 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 17? Apr 20 $660 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 17 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 17 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 14 $600 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 10? Apr 12 $660 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $665 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $660 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $660 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 06 $300 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 2? Apr 06 $360 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $350 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 30? Apr 01 $340 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $640 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $700 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $690 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $690 3d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $690 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $690 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $690 8d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $690 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 10d
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 83¢ $1 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $690 10d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $600 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $680 12d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $680 15d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $680 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $680 17d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $670 21d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $670 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $6 28d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $600 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 31d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $600 31d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $6 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $600 32d
Valencia: Alejandro Tabilo vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Alejandro Tabilo 81¢ $2 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $500 34d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $500 37d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $280 39d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $700.66 · official $700.66 (match) · 548 history records