Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:55:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F0 0xf0b4…3e87 weather 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%110W / 7L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$6
politics 0% $0
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 52 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 102 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 117 +0.1% -9.5% 94% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×24.06 per $1 lost it wins $24.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses110 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage124d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $118 $118 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 22 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? Jun 21 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 10 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 8? Jun 09 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 2? Jun 03 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 1? Jun 02 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 1? Jun 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 31? Jun 01 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 30? May 31 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 30? May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on May 29? May 30 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 29? May 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 29? May 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma May 29 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 27? May 28 $109 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $118 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $117 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $117 41h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $117 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $116 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $116 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $116 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $116 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $67 8d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $66 9d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $42 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $108 9d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $107 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $3 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 10d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $115 11d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $115 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $115 11d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $115 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $115 14d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $115 15d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $56 16d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $59 16d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $101 17d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $29 18d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $87 18d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 100¢ $28 18d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $33 19d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $28 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.74 · official $117.74 (match) · 238 history records