Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:19:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F0 0xf0b3…27d8 crypto 249 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$226 (-17%) realized −$326 · open +$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate14%33W / 210L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day81.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$42
crypto 28% −$99
other 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-55.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 243 -50.7% -55.4% 14% 13% -26.8%
≤30d 243 -50.7% -55.4% 14% 13% -26.8%
≤90d 243 -50.7% -55.4% 14% 13% -26.8%
all 243 -50.7% -55.4% 14% 13% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.4% 13% -26.8%
10% ← realistic here -59.7% 13% -33.8%
15% -63.6% 12% -40.2%
20% -67.2% 12% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$326
Unrealized+$100
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses33 / 210
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)243 / 249
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day81.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Johannus Monday vs Tristan Schoolkate Johannus Monday 1¢ 36¢ $1 $36 +$35 (+3500%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Yi Zhou Guy Den Ouden 1¢ 44¢ $1 $35 +$34 (+4250%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 10¢ 50¢ $3 $15 +$12 (+405%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET Down 5¢ 50¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+910%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 5¢ 50¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+910%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 26¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Alex Bolt Jun 22 $20 $0 -1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lorenzo Giustino vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 22 $150 $0 -0%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Anton Matusevich vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 22 $150 −$2 -1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $50 $0 -1%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $8 $0 -1%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $170 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Jiang/Xu vs Mihalikova/Nicholls Jun 22 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Bucharest: Diana-Ioana Simionescu vs Daria Yesypchuk Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Ekaterina Yashina Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Yi Zhou BUY Guy Den Ouden 1¢ $0 0m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Yi Zhou BUY Guy Den Ouden 1¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 45m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Alex Bolt SELL Oliver Tarvet 99¢ $20 47m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Johannus Monday vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Johannus Monday 1¢ $1 56m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Johannus Monday vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Johannus Monday 1¢ $0 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Johannus Monday vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Johannus Monday 1¢ $0 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lorenzo Giustino vs Gauthier Onclin SELL Gauthier Onclin 100¢ $150 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw BUY Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 0¢ $0 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Yu-Hsiou Hsu 1¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Anton Matusevich vs Rei Sakamoto SELL Rei Sakamoto 99¢ $148 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL No 99¢ $50 11h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $10 11h
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks SELL Los Angeles Sparks 99¢ $8 12h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 100¢ $169 12h
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Jiang/Xu vs Mihalikova/Nicholls SELL Jiang/Xu 3¢ $0 12h
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Jiang/Xu vs Mihalikova/Nicholls SELL Mihalikova/Nicholls 96¢ $8 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.29 · official $108.29 (match) · 760 history records