Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:41:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F0 0xf0b3…1698 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$287 (+59%) realized +$292 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +97% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +71% what you keep after slip
Net edge+71%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$304
14 days+$284
30 days+$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$157
sports 30% +$34
world 4% +$88
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+77.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +112.9% +92.7% 42% 42% +83.8%
≤30d 13 +96.6% +77.8% 38% 38% +71.9%
≤90d 13 +96.6% +77.8% 38% 38% +71.9%
all 13 +96.6% +77.8% 38% 38% +71.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +77.8% 38% +71.9%
10% +60.8% 38% +55.5%
15% +45.3% 38% +40.4%
20% +31.0% 38% +26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +90% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +97% · $-wt +90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +164% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$22 · ×4.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$292
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)13 / 21
History coverage8d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 28¢ 28¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 39¢ $29 $25 −$3 (-11%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Japan 13¢ 12¢ $13 $12 −$2 (-12%)
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $21 +$179 +874%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $22 +$68 +317%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $53 +$57 +109%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $21 +$69 +325%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $20 +$88 +430%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 58m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 37¢ $30 59m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 13¢ $13 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 28¢ $29 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 30¢ $31 5h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 17h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $18 18h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 44h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 45h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $53 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $29 7d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.99 · official $162.99 · 36 history records