Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:13:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F0
0xf0b2…189e
politics · 174 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1,487 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,488 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$148
Realized−$1,488
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses36 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)173 / 174
Avg bet$1,324
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 1 History 173 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$76
14 days+$41
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $148 $148 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $747 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,116 −$4 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $714 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $8,885 −$9 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,446 −$4 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $6,123 −$7 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,378 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,776 −$3 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $60 +$44 +73%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $571 −$1 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $68 +$66 +97%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $3,119 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $554 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,123 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,592 −$2 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $788 −$1 -0%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 02 $74 +$48 +65%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $119 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $348 +$1 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,769 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,450 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $5,958 −$6 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,216 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,165 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $436 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $3,707 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $6,663 −$7 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $418 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $2,444 −$3 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $569 −$1 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 25 $84 −$84 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $51 +$60 +119%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,977 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $624 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $57 +$60 +105%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 21 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $1,458 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 47% −$130
other 36% −$7
sports 12% −$1,340
world 2% −$6
culture 1% −$4
economics 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $746 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $747 5h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $786 22h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $787 24h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $759 29h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $760 31h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $713 45h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $714 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $827 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $828 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $689 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $690 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $597 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $597 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $148 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $952 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $954 3d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $833 3d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $834 4d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $955 4d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $957 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $694 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $695 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $570 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $571 6d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 57¢ $60 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $546 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $546 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $554 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $554 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +13.0% +2.2% 15% 15% -9.3%
≤30d 65 +2.3% -7.4% 11% 8% -9.6%
≤90d 123 -6.9% -15.8% 8% 5% -10.6%
all 173 +1.4% -8.3% 21% 10% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 10% -10.1%
10% -17.0% 10% -18.7%
15% -25.1% 9% -26.6%
20% -32.4% 9% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.83 · official $147.83 (match) · 629 history records