Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0b2…43e4 world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$4
other 29% −$16
politics 7% −$2
sports 6% $0
crypto 4% +$1
tech 4% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.3% -10.7% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 15 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 13% -9.1%
≤90d 18 +0.9% -8.7% 39% 11% -8.9%
all 43 -3.1% -12.3% 26% 5% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 5% -10.7%
10% -20.7% 0% -19.2%
15% -28.4% 0% -27.0%
20% -35.4% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage254d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $33 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $99 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $24 $0 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $7 $0 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $47 +$6 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $51 −$4 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $5 +$1 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $49 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 19 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Jan 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 28 $10 −$2 -17%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $72 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $23 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 20 $5 $0 -2%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Nov 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Nov 14 $17 +$1 +8%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 21 $17 +$1 +8%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 21 $19 −$2 -12%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 18 $23 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 13 $23 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Oct 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Oct 12 $2 $0 -20%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 11 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 11 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Kleber Mendonça Filho win Best Director at the 98th Academy Award Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $33 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $52 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $52 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $23 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $24 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $48 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $3 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $45 3d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $53 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $47 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $33 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $9 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $36 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $7 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $47 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $47 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records