Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F0
0xf0b0…8cab
weather · 588 markets active 11d ago
0.0score
−$719 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$905 · open −$1,193
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$8,039
Realized+$905
Unrealized−$1,193
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses309 / 107
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions468
Markets (closed)416 / 588
Avg bet$28
Trades / day3426.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 468 History 416 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$37
14 days+$905
30 days+$905
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 35¢ 100¢ $21 $60 +$39 (+188%)
Will Arya Azma win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $57 $59 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Republicans win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 80¢ 96¢ $48 $58 +$10 (+20%)
Will BNB reach $1600 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 80¢ 56¢ $80 $56 −$24 (-29%)
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 96¢ 93¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-3%)
Will the Republican Party win the NY-20 House seat? No 93¢ 93¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? No 87¢ 87¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $52 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Will Michele Tafoya be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $49 $51 +$2 (+5%)
Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027? No 96¢ 92¢ $53 $51 −$2 (-4%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? Yes 89¢ 84¢ $53 $50 −$3 (-6%)
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? Yes 96¢ 82¢ $57 $49 −$8 (-15%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 70¢ $59 $49 −$10 (-17%)
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? No 82¢ 80¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-2%)
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 80¢ $55 $48 −$7 (-13%)
Will Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2027? No 94¢ 92¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027? No 92¢ 86¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No 85¢ 76¢ $51 $45 −$6 (-11%)
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? No 63¢ 73¢ $38 $44 +$6 (+16%)
Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 29? Jun 12 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Jun 12 $26 +$5 +18%
Will Trump say "My Father" or "My Mother" this week? (April 27 - May 3 Jun 12 $21 +$9 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 31°F or below on April 22? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 29? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 28? Jun 12 $25 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 92°F or higher on April 22? Jun 12 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 28? Jun 12 $20 +$7 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on April 2 Jun 12 $23 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Windsor" during King Charles visit? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 22? Jun 12 $3 +$9 +313%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 29? Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on April 23? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on April 21? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions ev Jun 12 $4 −$4 -120%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on April 21? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 23? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 28 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C or higher on April 22? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will "Crazy" be said 15+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rog Jun 12 $4 −$18 -435%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 22? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 22? Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ap Jun 12 $4 $0 +4%
OpenGradient FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 12 $4 −$10 -277%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 22? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +115%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 11 $6 +$24 +376%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 11 $26 +$1 +5%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026? Jun 10 $25 +$5 +19%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30? Jun 09 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $560 −$5 -1%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $557 −$6 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $40 +$26 +66%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 05 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $89 +$30 +34%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Jun 04 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Jun 04 $28 +$2 +5%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 04 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.25B and $3 Jun 04 $14 +$15 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $21 +$24 +116%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $159 +$5 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $22 +$26 +120%
Will Sam Bregman win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary e Jun 03 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $19 +$6 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $30 $0 +1%
Will "The Crash" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $237 +$21 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $70 +$29 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $118 +$18 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 45% −$805
weather 19% +$180
politics 18% +$47
world 12% +$162
tech 2% +$30
culture 2% +$69
economics 1% +$1
finance 1% +$12
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? SELL Yes 93¢ $28 11d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 86¢ $13 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? BUY Yes 91¢ $27 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 11d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 1? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 11d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 11d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid BUY No 100¢ $30 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 11d
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial SELL No 11¢ $0 11d
Tuyo FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 11d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 1? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 11d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 1? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 1? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? BUY No 88¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 1? SELL No 57¢ $1 11d
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May? SELL No 100¢ $15 11d
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele SELL No 71¢ $2 11d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 1? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 1? SELL No 100¢ $22 11d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 BUY Yes 83¢ $25 11d
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 11d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 1? SELL No 85¢ $25 11d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 1? BUY No 72¢ $22 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 11d
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of BUY No 76¢ $4 11d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 11d
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in May? SELL No 99¢ $30 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +23.8% +12.0% 85% 33% -6.2%
≤30d 416 +29.2% +16.9% 74% 22% -3.6%
≤90d 416 +29.2% +16.9% 74% 22% -3.6%
all 416 +29.2% +16.9% 74% 22% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3426.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.9% 22% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here +5.7% 16% -12.8%
15% -4.5% 11% -21.3%
20% -13.8% 9% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,038.72 · official $8,531.66 · 3500 history records