Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:37:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F0 0xf0ad…34ce sports 675 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized +$9 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%371W / 291L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day36.6pace
Fees−$134est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$105
14 days−$550
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$72
other 4% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +9.0% -1.4% 58% 53% -6.0%
≤30d 662 +14.3% +3.4% 56% 48% -9.9%
≤90d 662 +14.3% +3.4% 56% 48% -9.9%
all 662 +14.3% +3.4% 56% 48% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.4% 48% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -6.5% 39% -18.5%
15% -15.5% 34% -26.4%
20% -23.8% 27% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$284
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses371 / 291
Est. fees paid−$134
Open positions12
Markets (closed)662 / 675
History coverage22d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day36.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 662 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 42¢ 80¢ $38 $72 +$34 (+89%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 58¢ 55¢ $49 $46 −$3 (-6%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 75¢ 54¢ $53 $38 −$15 (-29%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees No 80¢ 44¢ $60 $33 −$27 (-45%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 54¢ 60¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+11%)
Egypt leading at halftime? No 59¢ 56¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-6%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 57¢ 64¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+11%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) New York Yankees 64¢ 76¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+19%)
New Zealand leading at halftime? Yes 65¢ 14¢ $32 $7 −$25 (-78%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 56¢ 48¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
São Bernardo FC vs. EC Juventude: O/U 1.5 Under 67¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+48%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Under 63¢ 89¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+41%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 42¢ 36¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 283 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $3 +$7 +250%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $26 +$23 +86%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $6 +$4 +67%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $32 +$21 +65%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 22 $18 +$30 +165%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $0 $0 +76%
Legia Warszawa vs. Basket Zielona Gora Jun 21 $38 +$12 +30%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 21 $40 +$23 +57%
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Gavin Young Jun 21 $24 +$6 +24%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $48 +$45 +93%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $28 +$23 +79%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Se Jun 21 $35 +$9 +26%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $9 −$8 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $14 +$34 +238%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 21 $24 +$16 +65%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $4 +$2 +57%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $17 +$34 +197%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. N Jun 21 $6 +$5 +76%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $4 +$1 +21%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $24 +$25 +101%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm Jun 21 $36 +$14 +38%
Will Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès end in a draw? Jun 21 $45 +$6 +14%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $44 −$44 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs Noskova Jun 21 $36 +$16 +44%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $24 +$32 +137%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $29 −$29 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $18 −$18 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Navone vs Sonego Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $21 +$34 +158%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $27 −$27 -99%
Set Handicap: Samsonova (-1.5) vs Siniakova (+1.5) Jun 21 $37 +$7 +18%
Molcan vs. Cassone: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 21 $29 +$22 +73%
ITF Lourinha: Tiago Torres vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 21 $19 +$6 +31%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Berta Passola Jun 21 $44 +$6 +14%
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Theo Papamalamis vs Melios Efstathiou Jun 21 $40 +$10 +26%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $24 −$24 -98%
ITF Mohammedia: Daria Egorova vs Nina Vargova Jun 21 $7 −$7 -99%
Set Handicap: Tomljanovic (-1.5) vs Erjavec (+1.5) Jun 21 $36 −$36 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $6 −$6 -99%
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Nikita Mashtakov Jun 21 $32 −$32 -99%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Keshav Chopra Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $29 +$22 +73%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 +$6 +65%
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 21 $34 +$9 +26%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 21 $46 +$6 +12%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $23 −$23 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $23 −$23 -98%
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Haruka Kaji Jun 21 $46 +$8 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $27 16m
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $32 17m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $14 18m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $6 30m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $0 30m
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $29 31m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 63¢ $0 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 42¢ $39 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $3 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi BUY Yes 37¢ $18 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $32 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 53¢ $26 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $6 3h
Legia Warszawa vs. Basket Zielona Gora SELL Legia Warszawa 100¢ $50 3h
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv SELL Hapoel Tel-Aviv 100¢ $64 3h
São Bernardo FC vs. EC Juventude: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1 3h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Se BUY No 79¢ $35 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $9 6h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 51¢ $26 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 6h
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 63¢ $34 6h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 55¢ $28 6h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 51¢ $22 6h
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 62¢ $6 6h
Legia Warszawa vs. Basket Zielona Gora BUY Legia Warszawa 76¢ $38 7h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova 100¢ $5 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 98¢ $49 7h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm SELL Marc Polmans 100¢ $50 7h
Will Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $52 7h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. N BUY No 56¢ $6 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.28 · official $283.03 (match) · 1093 history records