Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:16:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0ac…4ec7 sports 1397 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43,881 (+108%) realized +$43,889 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%439W / 951L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day69.5pace
Fees−$692est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 329 -21.9% -29.3% 24% 24% -13.8%
≤30d 1390 -15.2% -23.3% 32% 31% -6.9%
≤90d 1390 -15.2% -23.3% 32% 31% -6.9%
all 1390 -15.2% -23.3% 32% 31% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 31% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.6% 29% -15.8%
15% -37.3% 27% -24.0%
20% -43.5% 25% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$17 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$43,889
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses439 / 951
Est. fees paid−$692
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1390 / 1397
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day69.5
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1390 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Lotte Giants 69¢ 100¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+44%)
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Mia Ristic 28¢ 57¢ $6 $11 +$6 (+104%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers SSG Landers 11¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-96%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Hanwha Eagles 24¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Kiwoom Heroes 10¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Doosan Bears $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $2 +$18 +1116%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bellucci vs. Bublik: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $15 +$6 +38%
Bellucci vs. Bublik: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $14 +$7 +48%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $12 +$19 +158%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $47 +$20 +42%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $24 +$8 +33%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $13 +$24 +180%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $13 +$21 +165%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $12 +$20 +165%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $21 +$12 +60%
Mertens vs. Samsonova: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Mertens vs. Samsonova: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $15 +$6 +36%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $31 −$9 -28%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $12 +$8 +73%
Paul vs. Svajda: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Figueira Da Foz: Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $8 +$13 +158%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Halle Open (Doubles): Etcheverry/Kecmanovic vs Schnaitter/Wallner Jun 15 $15 +$5 +36%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $42 −$2 -5%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Jun 15 $27 +$5 +20%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 15 $4 +$6 +129%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 15 $26 +$5 +18%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 166.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 172.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 28¢ $6 27m
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 27¢ $6 57m
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles $0 58m
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 14¢ $4 1h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY SSG Landers 11¢ $5 1h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears $1 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 15¢ $4 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li $2 1h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Kiwoom Heroes 10¢ $2 2h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 69¢ $15 2h
Bellucci vs. Bublik: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 67¢ $14 2h
Bellucci vs. Bublik: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 72¢ $15 2h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexei Popyrin 11¢ $3 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays $2 8h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) BUY Los Angeles Sparks 15¢ $3 9h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 24¢ $8 10h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 29¢ $17 10h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 38¢ $12 10h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 60¢ $41 10h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 21¢ $6 10h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 22¢ $7 10h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 37¢ $12 11h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 37¢ $13 11h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 22¢ $7 11h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 15¢ $2 11h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 37¢ $12 12h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 35¢ $13 12h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 62¢ $21 12h
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Anna Blinkova 15¢ $9 19h
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 28¢ $6 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.68 · official $32.68 (match) · 3500 history records