Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:30:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F0 0xf0ac…d2fb sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,029 (-32%) realized −$1,095 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%2W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$915now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$591
7 days−$591
14 days−$591
30 days−$591
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$525
sports 14% −$255
politics 5% −$150
world 3% −$100
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +55.5% +40.7% 33% 33% -60.6%
≤30d 3 +55.5% +40.7% 33% 33% -60.6%
≤90d 3 +55.5% +40.7% 33% 33% -60.6%
all 14 -37.1% -43.1% 14% 14% -66.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.1% 14% -66.4%
10% -48.5% 14% -69.6%
15% -53.5% 14% -72.5%
20% -58.0% 14% -75.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -96% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$250 vs −$133 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$915
Realized−$1,095
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage218d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $488 $554 +$66 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $189 −$184 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $199 +$358 +179%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $773 −$764 -99%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Seahawks vs. Titans Nov 23 $50 −$48 -95%
Giants vs. Lions Nov 23 $50 +$142 +285%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Jets vs. Ravens Nov 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Featu Nov 23 $4 −$3 -75%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on Nov Nov 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on Novemb Nov 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "War" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on Novembe Nov 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on Nove Nov 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times during Saudi Investment For Nov 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $189 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $189 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $199 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $198 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $773 13h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $763 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1,357 17d
Rams vs. Bears BUY Bears 33¢ $250 158d
Seahawks vs. Titans SELL Titans 1¢ $2 214d
Giants vs. Lions SELL Giants 50¢ $192 214d
Buccaneers vs. Rams BUY Buccaneers 25¢ $50 214d
Seahawks vs. Titans BUY Titans 13¢ $50 214d
Jets vs. Ravens BUY Jets 11¢ $50 214d
Giants vs. Lions BUY Giants 13¢ $50 214d
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Featu SELL Yes 19¢ $1 214d
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Featu BUY Yes 75¢ $4 214d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on Nov BUY No 27¢ $50 218d
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on Novemb BUY No 69¢ $50 218d
Will Trump say "War" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on Novembe BUY No 40¢ $50 218d
Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on Nove BUY No 52¢ $50 218d
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times during Saudi Investment For BUY No 32¢ $50 218d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $914.86 · official $914.86 (match) · 38 history records