Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:04:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F0 0xf0ab…a0d4 other 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$15
politics 24% −$9
sports 12% +$11
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 89 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 119 +1.6% -8.1% 6% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 4% -9.6%
10% -16.9% 3% -18.2%
15% -24.9% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.3% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$0 · ×10.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage132d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $175 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $19 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $180 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $180 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $185 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $142 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $207 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $362 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $152 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $206 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $588 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 11 $164 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 11 $152 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $169 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $189 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $149 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $312 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $166 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $210 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $158 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $559 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $209 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $174 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $208 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $191 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $154 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $361 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 20 $196 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $316 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $179 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $715 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 4h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 11h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 17h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 17h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 2d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 2d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 4d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 4d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 4d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $25 9d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $25 9d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $30 9d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $30 9d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $190 25d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 27d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $180 27d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $180 28d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $180 28d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $180 29d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $185 29d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $185 31d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $195 32d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $195 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 401 history records