Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:30:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F0 0xf0aa…cbc2 crypto 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$520 (-10%) realized −$447 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%37W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$327now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$282
7 days+$282
14 days+$282
30 days+$282
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$820
sports 9% +$279
other 8% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +275.9% +240.1% 100% 100% +240.1%
≤30d 1 +275.9% +240.1% 100% 100% +240.1%
≤90d 1 +275.9% +240.1% 100% 100% +240.1%
all 118 -14.8% -23.0% 31% 31% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 31% -20.9%
10% -30.3% 31% -28.5%
15% -37.1% 31% -35.4%
20% -43.2% 31% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +276% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$38 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$327
Realized−$447
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses37 / 81
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)118 / 123
History coverage113d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 39¢ 30¢ $300 $230 −$70 (-23%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$282 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 02 $17 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 02 $31 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Mar 02 $31 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 01 $35 +$43 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Feb 28 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Feb 27 $89 −$87 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Feb 27 $108 −$107 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Feb 27 $27 −$27 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Feb 27 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Feb 27 $25 +$35 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Feb 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Feb 27 $36 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Feb 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Feb 27 $10 +$20 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Feb 27 $15 +$16 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Feb 27 $22 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 26 $56 +$179 +322%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 26 $38 −$37 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Feb 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Feb 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Feb 26 $31 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Feb 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Feb 26 $29 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Feb 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Feb 26 $66 +$102 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Feb 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Feb 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Feb 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Feb 26 $35 +$93 +265%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Feb 26 $35 +$107 +306%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 26 $81 −$81 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Feb 26 $75 −$74 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Feb 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Feb 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 26 $11 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Feb 26 $25 +$41 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Feb 26 $66 +$131 +199%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 17m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 21m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 24m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $384 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18 BUY 4¢ $51 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18 BUY 9¢ $205 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 29¢ $102 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $7 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $10 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $326.76 · official $684.54 · 586 history records