Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:15:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F0 0xf0a5…0f5a sports 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$202 (+5%) realized +$214 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%24W / 33L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$647
other 38% −$259
world 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +18.2% +6.9% 42% 35% -0.4%
≤30d 57 +18.2% +6.9% 42% 35% -0.4%
≤90d 57 +18.2% +6.9% 42% 35% -0.4%
all 57 +18.2% +6.9% 42% 35% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.9% 35% -0.4%
10% ← realistic here -3.3% 35% -9.9%
15% -12.6% 30% -18.6%
20% -21.2% 25% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$26 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$214
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses24 / 33
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 72
History coverage4d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 9¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $101 +$26 +26%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Un Jun 19 $31 −$2 -7%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND United States vs. Aust Jun 19 $41 −$4 -9%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $254 −$4 -2%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $51 +$13 +26%
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? AND Czechia to score first vs. South Jun 19 $31 +$55 +180%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 +$74 +73%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 +$61 +596%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 +$1 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$84 +83%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $401 +$19 +5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia Jun 18 $10 +$52 +504%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$114 +370%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $31 +$81 +263%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 +$23 +224%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 +$36 +119%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $132 +$152 +115%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$56 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$27 -67%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $61 −$33 -54%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 −$3 -3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $191 +$97 +51%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 +$15 +50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$34 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 5h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 5h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 5h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Un SELL 37¢ $29 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND United States vs. Aust BUY 38¢ $51 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND United States vs. Aust SELL 44¢ $37 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 44¢ $102 6h
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? AND United States to score first vs. BUY 36¢ $102 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND United States vs. Aust BUY 46¢ $41 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Australia: BUY 40¢ $51 6h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi BUY 13¢ $31 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: Un BUY 28¢ $41 7h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Un BUY 38¢ $31 7h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Scotland vs. Moro BUY 25¢ $41 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 91¢ $57 19h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 47¢ $64 19h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $50 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $192 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $203 22h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 23h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 23h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 23h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 32h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 32h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 32h
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? AND Czechia to score first vs. South BUY 35¢ $31 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.50 · official $361.72 · 138 history records