Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:00:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F0
0xf0a3…4a19
weather · 478 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$28 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$209
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses131 / 221
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions126
Markets (closed)352 / 478
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day87.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 126 History 352 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$13
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 33¢ 80¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+142%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Yes 31¢ 40¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+29%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? Yes 38¢ 52¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+36%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? Yes 38¢ 95¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+149%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+14%)
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31? Google 73¢ 70¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 42¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+112%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Yes 39¢ 60¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+55%)
Will Türkiye be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+21%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 62¢ 61¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Yes 39¢ 54¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Yes 46¢ 64¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Yes 41¢ 55¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Yes 34¢ 44¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 40¢ 54¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 26¢ 60¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+133%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 35¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Yes 39¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Yes 26¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 36¢ 78¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+118%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $240? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -46%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -52%
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +153%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -63%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $2 +$2 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +339%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +318%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +221%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +256%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +164%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -64%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$3 +249%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +59%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$5 +463%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +215%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 −$3 -82%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 −$2 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$4 +203%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$4 +207%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +155%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 11 $2 +$3 +160%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 71% −$6
sports 14% −$15
other 13% +$2
crypto 1% −$6
world 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $2 45m
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will USA finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 58¢ $1 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 53¢ $1 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $1 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 51¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 56¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $1 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $240? SELL No 94¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 75¢ $2 2h
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 57¢ $1 2h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 2h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 2h
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2h
Will Colombia finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 50¢ $2 2h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 2h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 59¢ $1 2h
Will Ghana finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 37¢ $1 2h
Will Croatia finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 49¢ $2 2h
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2h
Will Algeria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $2 2h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $2 2h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 58¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 333 +1.1% -8.6% 37% 36% -11.0%
≤30d 352 +1.8% -7.9% 37% 36% -11.2%
≤90d 352 +1.8% -7.9% 37% 36% -11.2%
all 352 +1.8% -7.9% 37% 36% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover87.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 36% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 35% -19.7%
15% -24.8% 34% -27.5%
20% -32.1% 32% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.34 · official $209.35 (match) · 905 history records